The 2026 United States Grand Prix could crown Kimi Antonelli, but Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson have unfinished business behind him. Picture the opening lap: front tires protesting under braking, cars crowding the uphill hairpin, drivers choosing between a narrow gap and lost momentum. For the midfield, those decisions can determine whether Sunday becomes a points chase or an afternoon staring at another car’s rear wing.
Antonelli arrives with a 102-point championship lead over George Russell. He can clinch the title by winning, with Russell ninth or lower and Lewis Hamilton fifth or lower. Verstappen could finish anywhere. Suddenly, a midfield driver holding Russell outside the top eight could influence more than his own points haul.
Austin runs October 23–25, with a 56-lap Grand Prix on Sunday. Hadjar, Lawson, Pierre Gasly, Nico Hulkenberg, and Oliver Bearman each bring a different reason to look beyond the leading cars. Their opportunities start with qualifying, tire management, and the willingness to attack when a rival leaves room.
Where COTA Can Expose A Midfield Car
COTA changes character several times within a single lap. Drivers flick through the opening esses, slow for the Turn 11 hairpin, then accelerate toward the heavy braking zone at Turn 12. Turns 3–6 echo the fast directional changes at Silverstone and Suzuka, while the stadium section demands a different rhythm. A car that feels settled through those sweepers can still struggle when its driver asks for traction out of a slow corner.
The onboard cameras make those compromises visible. Repeated rear-end snaps through the esses suggest a driver lacks confidence in the car’s balance. At Turn 11, wheelspin or a corrective lift can surrender momentum before the back straight begins. Neither symptom alone proves a tire problem, but both explain where an apparently quick car loses time.
The 2026 systems add another layer to that Turn 11–12 attack. Active aerodynamics reduce drag in designated straight-line zones, while Overtake Mode supplies a separate electrical advantage to an eligible following car. A driver still needs a strong corner exit to make the most of the assistance. Poor traction gives the defender valuable distance before the braking contest.
Hadjar Needs A Working Gearbox And A Clean Saturday
Isack Hadjar’s Singapore qualifying ended without a timed lap. A gearbox problem broke his run of 16 consecutive Grand Prix Q3 appearances. That makes him the most serious qualifying threat among these five. His latest Saturday tells us about a mechanical failure, not a sudden loss of speed.
Sunday demanded another repair job. After setup and power-unit changes, Hadjar started from the pit lane and fought back to tenth. He pointed to the tire change as the turning point: the medium tires limited his early progress, but the softs let him attack late. Gasly surrendered the final point in the closing laps.
That recovery gives Hadjar’s Austin case teeth. He found enough pace to pass cars on a circuit where position often resists horsepower. Sharing a garage with Verstappen also supplies a useful benchmark: the same Red Bull team won in Singapore.
Reliability remains his obstacle. Hadjar said the team still needed to understand how to prevent the technical problems from returning. Give him an uninterrupted qualifying session, and Austin could offer a much better starting point for that attacking pace.
Lawson Has Already Finished The Job
Liam Lawson started eighth in Singapore and finished seventh, collecting six points. He beat Hulkenberg and Russell to the flag, but the Mercedes result needs explanation before anyone treats it as a straightforward comparison of speed. Russell finished ninth, having started nineteenth after a power-unit penalty.
Russell suffered another setback during his recovery. The Virtual Safety Car ended as he entered the pit lane, reducing the benefit of his stop. He later passed Gasly but could not dislodge Hulkenberg from eighth. Lawson therefore finished ahead of a recovering Mercedes that had already paid a substantial positional price.
Lawson still earned his result. He put Racing Bulls ahead of the other midfield teams and kept that position through the finish. Austin now asks whether the car can carry that competitiveness through faster, sustained changes of direction.
His upside comes from starting near the front of the midfield and staying there. A strong launch out of Turn 11 could let him attack without spending several corners fighting for the same patch of asphalt. Singapore gives him momentum; COTA will test the car beneath it.
Gasly’s Rear Tires Are The Real Story
Pierre Gasly can put the Alpine near the front of the midfield. Keeping it there has become the problem. He started seventh in Singapore, lost positions at the launch, and finished eleventh after Russell and Hadjar passed him.
Gasly’s explanation was blunt. He lacked power off the line, struggled with traction, and exhausted the rear tires. That account supports a specific Austin concern: Alpine must improve the way it delivers power out of slow corners.
Turn 11 puts that weakness directly in the path of a passing opportunity. If Gasly struggles to accelerate cleanly, he can lose ground before reaching the straight where he needs to attack. The stadium section adds further slow-corner exits to the examination.
Gasly’s route to points therefore starts with protecting the rear tires without surrendering too much pace. Compare his stint progression with nearby rivals on similar compounds and tire ages. The important change would be an Alpine that remains competitive after its initial grip fades.
Hulkenberg Knows How To Make A Position Stick
Nico Hulkenberg’s Singapore result came with a useful demonstration of defensive driving. The Audi veteran finished eighth and kept Russell behind during the closing laps. Russell credited him with protecting that position.
He also finished eighth at Austin in 2025, then driving for Sauber. That history gives him experience of scoring here, even though the new regulations require fresh setup work. At COTA, his challenge will involve defending without ruining the exit that follows the braking zone. Holding a rival off at Turn 12 means little if the next sequence hands the position back.
Bearman Needs Haas To Find The Missing Pace
Oliver Bearman, now in his second full season, scored ninth at Austin last year. Singapore offered a less satisfying finish: twelfth after he overtook Haas teammate Esteban Ocon during the race. Bearman felt the car needed a couple more tenths per lap.
That makes him a development bet rather than a form pick. His willingness to race supplies the opening; Haas must provide enough speed to keep it open. Austin’s heavy stops offer chances to gain position, but an ambitious braking move cannot compensate for a persistent lap-time deficit.
Who Can Turn An Opening Into Big Points
All five drivers’ races will begin to separate once the opening-lap traffic settles. Compare the gaps before the first stops, then follow where each driver rejoins. An early stop can gain position through fresh-tire pace, but traffic can consume that advantage before the rival leaves the pits. Staying out works only while the old tires still deliver useful lap times.
The most interesting battle may involve a faster car arriving behind one of them. Does the midfielder defend every corner and lose contact with the cars ahead? Can he force the attacker to spend enough time fighting that both strategies change? Those choices reveal more than a single qualifying position.
Antonelli’s title permutations give that contest extra weight. Russell cannot afford another afternoon trapped near the bottom of the points if his teammate wins. Somewhere behind the podium fight, a driver protecting seventh or eighth could help decide when the championship ends.
Who can hold that place when the Mercedes fills his mirrors?
READ MORE: Can Kimi Antonelli Become F1 World Champion at the US GP 2026?
FAQs
Who are the dark horses for the 2026 United States Grand Prix?
Isack Hadjar, Liam Lawson, Pierre Gasly, Nico Hulkenberg and Oliver Bearman each have a route to a strong points finish at COTA.
Can Kimi Antonelli win the championship in Austin?
Yes. Antonelli can clinch by winning if George Russell finishes ninth or lower and Lewis Hamilton finishes fifth or lower.
Where can drivers overtake at COTA?
The run from Turn 11 to Turn 12 offers a key opportunity. Drivers need a clean corner exit before attacking under braking.
Why is Isack Hadjar a driver to watch?
Hadjar recovered from a pit-lane start to tenth in Singapore. His late pace on soft tires strengthens his Austin case.
What does Pierre Gasly need to improve in Austin?
Gasly needs better traction and rear-tire management. Those problems cost him positions and left him outside the points in Singapore.
