Max Verstappen arrives at Monza with the Zandvoort wall still fresh in his mirrors. The orange smoke had barely settled last Sunday when his Red Bull snapped sideways through the final corner. Gravel exploded beneath the floor. Seconds later, the home favorite climbed from a wrecked car while stunned Dutch fans stared through the fencing.
That crash hurt far beyond one lost afternoon. Verstappen sits sixth with 112 points, a staggering 130 behind championship leader Kimi Antonelli. Crashing on Lap 1 also robbed Red Bull of the long-run data it desperately needed before Formula 1’s fastest weekend.
Monza offers a strange form of hope. In 2024, Verstappen called his unbalanced Red Bull a “monster” there. One year later, he shattered Formula 1’s qualifying speed record and beat Lando Norris by almost 20 seconds.
Now Red Bull returns with a new chassis, active aerodynamics, and its Ford-backed power unit. Asked which version might appear, Verstappen offered no polished optimism.
“Impossible to know. I have no idea.”
Then came his modest target: getting “a bit closer” to the leaders. For a four-time world champion who dominated this race last September, those words reveal how far Red Bull’s confidence has fallen.
Zandvoort stripped away the last comfort
Verstappen never completed a racing lap at his final home Grand Prix for the foreseeable future. Heavy rain had soaked the circuit before the start, leaving grip uncertain and the racing line narrow. Exiting the banked final corner, he asked for power and felt the rear axle break loose.
The impact ended his race immediately. It also left Red Bull guessing.
Liam Lawson, replacing the injured Isack Hadjar, brought the other car home in seventh. However, he finished 79.915 seconds behind Norris. That was Red Bull’s only meaningful race reference before Monza, and it offered little comfort.
By Sunday evening, Laurent Mekies did not attempt to soften the damage. The former Racing Bulls boss, who replaced Christian Horner at Red Bull in July 2025, admitted there was “nowhere to hide.”
His next test leads directly back to the weekend that first justified Red Bull’s faith in his leadership. Barely two months after taking charge last year, Mekies watched the team transform an unpredictable car into Monza’s fastest machine.
A low-drag rear wing gave Verstappen the straight-line efficiency he needed. Greater reliance on his trackside feedback helped engineers settle the balance. Red Bull stopped chasing the simulator’s theoretical ideal and built a car its driver could trust.
Verstappen responded with a 1:18.792 qualifying lap, breaking Lewis Hamilton’s legendary 2020 record of 1:18.887. He then beat Norris by 19.207 seconds on Sunday.
Zandvoort suggested that clarity has disappeared again.
The RB22 had looked more competitive before the summer break at Spa, Budapest, and the Red Bull Ring. In the Netherlands, it appeared nervous, slow, and increasingly difficult to place. Verstappen’s crash prevented Red Bull from learning whether those weaknesses would have worsened across a full race distance.
Perhaps Zandvoort exposed a circuit-specific problem. Mercedes and McLaren may also have gained more from their latest development work. Either answer leaves Red Bull facing an uncomfortable reality.
Verstappen was not being pessimistic. He was delivering a brutally honest engineering assessment.
Last year’s cure must work through a different car
The 2025 Italian Grand Prix provides a method, not a reusable setup.
Red Bull’s Monza-specific wing reduced drag without making the car unmanageable through Ascari and Curva Alboreto. That balance cured the instability that had ruined its 2024 visit.
Verstappen could brake late, rotate cleanly, and apply power without waiting for the rear tires to settle. Each movement flowed into the next. The car rewarded commitment instead of punishing it.
Those same fundamentals still matter in 2026. The machinery around them has changed completely.
The RB22 carries active front and rear wing elements. Along Monza’s designated straight sections, those surfaces flatten to shed drag. When Verstappen lifts or touches the brake, they close again and restore downforce.
That transition must feel seamless.
Any sudden balance shift could unsettle the rear as Verstappen begins braking for Rettifilo. The 2024 car struggled with an unstable platform even under fixed aerodynamic rules. This year, the machine changes shape around him several times per lap.
A setup that looks efficient with the wings open could still feel nervous when they close. Adding stability through the corners might then create another imbalance when the car returns to Straight Mode.
Red Bull cannot bolt on last year’s wing, repeat the same ride height, and expect another record lap. It must recreate the trust Verstappen felt in 2025 through entirely different mechanical tools.
Every straight becomes an energy calculation
Verstappen will feel the new challenge most clearly when he exits Curva Alboreto.
He will unwind the steering, squeeze the throttle, and feel the MGU-K pour as much as 350kW through the rear axle. That electrical shove, nearly three times stronger than the previous system, will pin his helmet against the headrest.
Then the active wings will flatten.
Drag will fall, the engine note will sharpen, and the RB22 will surge toward the finish line. Yet the battery charge will also begin disappearing from the dashboard.
Spend too much energy early, and the acceleration will fade before the braking zone. Verstappen will feel the car stop pulling while a McLaren or Mercedes grows larger in his mirrors. Save too much, and he will surrender speed at the start of the straight, where the initial burst matters most.
Red Bull must shape that deployment around what Verstappen feels beneath him. The fastest computer simulation means little if the electrical boost arrives while the rear tires still fight for traction.
Braking creates the opposite challenge. Each violent stop allows the car to recover energy, but regeneration cannot disturb the pedal response. Verstappen needs the same resistance under his right foot every lap. Any change could force him to brake early and surrender the advantage Red Bull gained on the previous straight.
Monza magnifies those sensations. Cars spend almost 80 percent of the lap at full throttle, leaving the power unit under sustained stress. The 1.1-kilometer main straight offers nowhere to disguise weak deployment.
Last year, Verstappen carried clean exits onto those straights and let the low-drag car stretch away from Norris. This season, Red Bull must coordinate active aero, battery deployment, brake recovery, and chassis balance through the same sequence.
A weak exit, mistimed burst of power, or inconsistent brake pedal will appear immediately on the stopwatch.
Red Bull needs the right answer on Friday
A stable baseline means more than giving Verstappen a comfortable steering balance.
Engineers must set the ride height low enough to reduce drag without letting the floor hammer against Monza’s kerbs. The suspension also needs enough compliance for him to attack the first and second chicanes without sending the rear wheels hopping across the asphalt.
Pitch control will matter just as much. Under heavy braking, the nose dives and throws load toward the front axle. If the rear unloads too quickly, the car can rotate before Verstappen even turns the wheel.
That sensation haunted Red Bull at Monza in 2024. Twelve months later, the revised wing and setup direction kept the rear connected. Verstappen could strike the kerbs without waiting for the car to settle.
The 2026 challenge involves preserving that confidence across two aerodynamic configurations. Front and rear balance must remain consistent as the active wings open, close, and load the tires again.
Finding that platform early would let Red Bull spend time practicing refining deployment maps and tire preparation. Missing it could trigger another frantic sequence of wing changes, ride-height compromises, and contradictory feedback.
Every opening-session run will therefore carry unusual weight. One unexplained slide could send the engineers toward the wrong solution. Each setup detour will squeeze preparation before qualifying.
Red Bull solved Monza last year by simplifying its approach. The RB22 may not permit such a clean answer.
Mercedes and McLaren have moved the target
Norris arrives after consecutive Grand Prix victories. His McLaren looked composed at Zandvoort, allowing him to chase down Antonelli before winning by 11.536 seconds.
Mercedes placed both cars on the podium. Antonelli finished second, while George Russell claimed third after winning Saturday’s Sprint. Together, they showed the balance and tire control Red Bull lacked throughout the weekend.
Those teams now define the standard Verstappen must reach.
In 2025, he left Norris almost 20 seconds behind at Monza. Now, Red Bull would gladly accept a genuine fight with McLaren. That reversal captures the severity of its decline better than any technical explanation.
Monza could still disrupt the hierarchy. Its low-drag demands differ sharply from Zandvoort’s flowing corners. Ferrari also enters its home race after Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc finished fourth and fifth in the Netherlands.
A perfect slipstream can hide a car’s flaws during qualifying. Heavy traffic can ruin tire preparation before a lap begins. Sunday’s race pace will strip away those Saturday illusions.
Verstappen does not need another dominant victory to prove Red Bull has recovered. A front-row challenge would show that the RB22 can generate efficient speed. Stable tire temperatures and sustained electrical deployment would matter even more across the race.
Finishing several tenths behind Mercedes and McLaren would deliver the opposite verdict. It would suggest Antonelli, Russell, and Norris have not merely found circuit-specific advantages. Their teams may have out-developed Red Bull.
The first braking zone will deliver the verdict
Monza rarely hides the truth for long.
Verstappen will feel the answer before the timing screens reveal it. The RB22 will surge beneath him as the active wings flatten and the electrical power floods through the rear tires. Trees, fencing, and packed grandstands will smear into streaks of green, silver, and red.
The engine note will sharpen behind his helmet. Wind will hammer against the cockpit. Ahead, the braking boards will flick past faster than his eyes can comfortably process.
At roughly 350 km/h, Verstappen will stamp on the brake pedal.
The harness will bite into his shoulders as the carbon brakes glow behind the wheels. His helmet will pitch forward. The floor will skim the asphalt while the RB22 sheds nearly 280 km/h in less than three seconds.
At the same time, the active wings will close, and the MGU-K will begin harvesting energy from the deceleration. Verstappen cannot afford to think about either system. He must simply feel a car that remains balanced beneath him.
If the rear stays planted, he can release the brake, rotate, and attack Rettifilo. If it twitches, hops, or slides, he will know Red Bull still lacks the platform that delivered last year’s record lap.
One strike across the kerbs will reveal whether the ride height works. The next burst of acceleration will expose the deployment map. Ascari will test whether the RB22 can change direction without bleeding speed, while Curva Alboreto will demand traction for the long run back toward the line.
In 2024, Verstappen wrestled a monster. Last year, he drove a masterpiece. This weekend’s opening lap will show where the RB22 belongs between those extremes.
A strong Italian Grand Prix would prove Red Bull can still diagnose weakness and respond under pressure. Another heavy defeat would deepen the crisis while Antonelli, Norris, and Russell disappear further up the standings.
Verstappen cannot predict which version of Red Bull will arrive. He will know when the 100-meter board flashes past his visor, the brake pedal turns hard beneath his foot, and the car either settles into the asphalt or begins to slide.
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FAQs
Why did Max Verstappen say Monza was impossible to predict?
Red Bull struggled badly at Zandvoort. Verstappen does not know whether Monza’s low-drag layout will suit the RB22 or expose more weaknesses.
Where is Max Verstappen in the 2026 F1 standings?
Verstappen sits sixth with 112 points. He trails championship leader Kimi Antonelli by 130 points.
What happened when Verstappen raced at Monza in 2025?
He set a record-breaking 1:18.792 pole lap and won the race by 19.207 seconds over Lando Norris.
How powerful is the 2026 MGU-K?
The MGU-K can deliver 350kW to the rear wheels. That output nearly triples the previous system’s 120kW limit.
What does Red Bull need to compete at Monza?
The RB22 needs stable braking, balanced active aero, and well-timed battery deployment. Verstappen also needs confidence when attacking Monza’s kerbs.
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