Myktybek Orolbai gave the welterweight division a useful blueprint for neutralizing Uros Medic: crowd his hips, remove his space, and make him grapple instead of punch. Seven completed takedowns and more than seven minutes of control turned one of the division’s most dangerous finishers into a defensive fighter.
Now comes the more interesting question. Can Daniel Rodriguez exploit the same weakness without becoming somebody he has never been?
Rodriguez averages only 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes. Medic’s UFC takedown defense sits at 55 percent, while his striking accuracy reaches 60 percent. Those numbers do not forecast a wrestling match. They describe a striking fight where a handful of clinches or level changes could decide who gets to strike comfortably.
If Medic wants the fight on his terms, his job is clear: defend the first attack, escape the fence, and punish Rodriguez before he can rebuild his stance.
Medic’s takedown defense does not need to dominate the highlight reel.
It needs to keep him in position to create one.
Orolbai left the blueprint
Every takedown Orolbai landed dragged Medic further out of his element.
Orolbai went seven for 10 on takedown attempts in November 2023 and accumulated 7:26 of control before submitting Medic with a neck crank at 4:12 of Round 2. Five of those takedowns came in the opening round. Medic managed only 14 significant strikes before the finish.
The problem went beyond being taken down.
Once Orolbai connected his hands, Medic spent too much time fighting grips, rebuilding his base, and carrying another man’s weight. His left hand disappeared from the fight because his hips never stayed free long enough to create offense.
That is the real warning for Medic’s takedown defense.
Rodriguez does not have to reproduce Orolbai’s seven takedowns. He only needs to turn one entry into a long clinch or force Medic to spend valuable seconds fighting off the fence.
For a puncher who thrives on sudden openings, losing a minute that way matters.
Rodriguez only needs to disrupt him
Rodriguez has built his career around striking volume, not relentless wrestling. He lands 7.20 significant strikes per minute and averages barely half a takedown over 15 minutes.
That actually makes his wrestling threat more interesting.
A feinted level change can force Medic to drop his guard, opening a path for Rodriguez’s rear left or a looping punch upstairs. A real entry can make Medic widen his stance and stop setting his feet for power. Even a failed shot can become useful if Rodriguez drives him into the fence and keeps him there.
Kevin Holland saw that side of Rodriguez.
Rodriguez failed his only takedown attempt against Holland but still accumulated 3:34 of control time. He did not need to put Holland flat on his back to make body contact useful.
That distinction matters here.
Because of this, Medic’s takedown defense has to be about more than just sprawling. Stopping the initial shot solves only half the problem. He must prevent Rodriguez from climbing into a body lock, settling his head beneath Medic’s chin, or trapping him against the cage.
The real battle begins after the hips survive.
Escape the fence first
The fence strips away several things Medic does well.
Open space lets him read an opponent’s first movement. He can shift his feet, set his rear hand, and attack when somebody crosses into his preferred range. With his back near the cage, those choices shrink quickly.
Rodriguez does not need a textbook double-leg to exploit that.
He can punch Medic backward, change levels as Medic plants, and use the resulting clinch to make the Serbian carry his weight. From there, knees, short punches, and another takedown attempt can keep Medic occupied.
Tim Means provides a useful counterexample.
Means tried three takedowns against Medic in April 2024 and completed none. He still generated some control along the fence, but Medic never allowed the grappling to erase his offense. At 2:09 of the first round, Medic found the knockout.
That should be the model.
Medic does not need to celebrate a successful sprawl or stay tied up trying to prove he is stronger. He needs to use takedown defense to get back to open canvas as quickly as possible.
The faster he separates, the faster Rodriguez must solve his power again.
Win underneath the arms
Medic must establish his defense underneath Rodriguez’s arms.
If Rodriguez reaches his hips near the fence, the underhook becomes far more valuable than an immediate counterpunch. Medic can use it to lift Rodriguez’s posture, turn his shoulders away from the cage, and deny the second effort.
Head position matters too.
Rodriguez should not be allowed to bury his forehead beneath Medic’s jaw and drive forward freely. Medic needs his own head inside the clinch, his hips underneath him, and enough lateral movement to prevent Rodriguez from locking his hands.
Only then should the punches return.
A rear left as Rodriguez releases the clinch would be particularly dangerous. After a failed shot, Rodriguez may rise with his posture taller and his feet temporarily square. Medic needs only a narrow lane to punish that reset.
That is how Medic’s takedown defense can become offense.
Stuff the entry, win the underhook, turn into space, then make Rodriguez rebuild his stance under fire.
Do not chase the neck
Medic has submission ability.
His professional record includes two submission victories, both by triangle choke.
None of that means he should go hunting for a guillotine every time Rodriguez changes levels.
A loose front headlock can become a trap. If Medic reaches for the neck without controlling Rodriguez’s hips, he risks being driven into the fence or pulled into bottom position.
That exchange would give Rodriguez exactly what he wants: time without absorbing Medic’s clean power.
The simpler response carries more value. Frame on the head, clear the hips, establish an underhook and leave.
Medic can grapple.
He just should not volunteer for a grappling fight.
The Semelsberger fight showed another answer
Matthew Semelsberger tested Medic’s defensive wrestling in a different kind of fight.
Semelsberger attempted two takedowns and completed neither. Medic, meanwhile, converted his only takedown attempt and eventually stopped him with a spinning back elbow in Round 3.
That performance matters because it showed Medic functioning through multiple phases.
Semelsberger even dropped him in the opening round. The fight became messy, physical and extended, yet Medic remained dangerous deep enough into the contest to find a third-round finish.
Against Rodriguez, that experience should encourage patience.
A stuffed shot does not require an immediate knockout attempt. Medic can separate, reset his feet, and make Rodriguez cross the dangerous distance again.
That last step matters.
If Medic’s takedown defense becomes hurried offense, Rodriguez can exploit the scramble. If it becomes clean separation, Medic regains the fight he wants.
Make every failed shot expensive
Medic lands significant strikes at 60 percent accuracy and owns 11 knockout victories. Ten of his professional wins have ended in the first round.
Those numbers explain why Rodriguez cannot shoot carelessly.
Medic should make every failed entry reinforce that fear.
Suppose Rodriguez changes levels and reaches the legs. Medic sprawls, turns off the fence, and creates two feet of separation. Rodriguez now has to lift his posture and reset his guard.
That is the moment Medic should fire.
The rear left can split the center. A short hook can catch Rodriguez while his head rises. A knee becomes available if Rodriguez remains bent over during the break.
Medic’s best defensive wrestling should end with Rodriguez wondering whether the next level change is worth the risk.
That hesitation alone has value.
Once Rodriguez starts thinking twice about the shot, Medic can set his feet more confidently.
Do not give back the seconds
Spending 45 seconds pinned to the fence might tempt Medic to rush his offense the moment he breaks free.
That would waste the escape.
Rodriguez thrives on accumulated exchanges. His striking volume becomes more troublesome when opponents stay in front of him and trade for extended stretches.
Medic cannot let defensive work create offensive impatience.
After escaping, he should reset completely. Recover his stance. Get his feet underneath him. Force Rodriguez to cross open space again.
There is no need to reclaim every lost second immediately.
The more important goal is reclaiming the geography of the fight.
That is why Medic must treat takedown defense as clock management, not just grappling.
A long clinch lets Rodriguez burn time without confronting Medic’s most dangerous weapon. A quick escape gives that time back to the striker.
Rodriguez’s track record makes the strategy clear
Rodriguez is not suddenly going to become Orolbai.
His career numbers make that unlikely. He averages 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes, while his offense overwhelmingly revolves around striking.
That does not make the wrestling irrelevant.
It makes each attempt more tactical.
Rodriguez can use a level change when Medic starts finding his timing. He can clinch after absorbing a hard left. He can push Medic against the fence simply to break his rhythm before returning to boxing.
Medic should read those moments for what they are.
If Rodriguez shoots after getting hurt, the striking has already created the reaction Medic wanted. Defend it, separate cleanly, then attack again.
A strong night of Medic’s takedown defense might involve only two or three serious exchanges. The important part is making sure none of them becomes a hiding place for Rodriguez.
The fight Medic needs
Beating Rodriguez comes down to Medic protecting the minutes where he is most dangerous.
The Orolbai loss showed the worst version of that problem. Seven takedowns and 7:26 of control stripped away Medic’s preferred offense and eventually exposed his neck.
Means showed another possibility. Three takedown attempts failed, and Medic remained free long enough to find the knockout. Semelsberger went zero for two, while Medic survived a difficult fight and produced another stoppage.
Rodriguez sits somewhere between those challenges.
He does not need elite wrestling to disrupt Medic. He only needs enough grappling to make the Serbian think twice about planting his feet.
Medic’s answer should stay uncomplicated.
Defend the hips first. Establish the underhook. Turn away from the fence. Then make Rodriguez pay with the rear left as he rebuilds his stance.
If Medic’s takedown defense does that consistently, the grappling may barely register when people remember the fight.
That would mean it worked. Medic does not need to win a wrestling match. He needs wrestling defense good enough to keep the knockout available.
READ MORE: Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez: How Distance Control Ended It in 30 Seconds
FAQs
What is Uros Medic’s UFC takedown defense rate?
Medic carries a 55 percent takedown-defense rate. His challenge is turning successful defenses into quick separation and renewed striking offense.
How many takedowns did Myktybek Orolbai land on Uros Medic?
Orolbai completed seven of 10 takedowns and controlled Medic for 7:26 before winning by neck crank.
Is Daniel Rodriguez a heavy takedown fighter?
No. Rodriguez averages only 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes, but his clinch and level changes can still disrupt Medic’s striking rhythm.
Why are underhooks important for Uros Medic?
An underhook can help Medic lift Rodriguez’s posture, turn away from the fence and create the space he needs to punch again.
Has Uros Medic successfully defended takedowns before?
Yes. Tim Means went 0-for-3, while Matthew Semelsberger went 0-for-2 on takedown attempts against Medic.
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