NFL special teams rankings don’t sound like championship material when nearly 69,000 people are screaming through the opening kickoff. Then Rashid Shaheed catches the ball at his own 5-yard line, finds daylight, and turns upfield.
On January 17, 2026, Shaheed raced 95 yards against San Francisco, scoring just 13 seconds into Seattle’s divisional playoff game. Lumen Field erupted. The 49ers trailed 7-0 without their offense taking a snap.
Seattle had acquired Shaheed from New Orleans in November. Two months later, his speed had become a postseason weapon, not merely something opposing defensive backs needed to worry about.
The Seahawks won 41-6, and their playoff run ended with a Super Bowl LX championship. Shaheed’s opening burst offered a spectacular example of football’s least glamorous unit changing a game, as Seattle’s official game report detailed.
But special teams don’t usually announce themselves with a touchdown. They work through coverage assignments, well-placed punts, reliable kicking, and the constant battle for field position.
Sometimes the difference comes down to whether a kicker can deliver from 50 yards.
That raises a sharper question than whether returns are exciting: Can strong special teams really help predict who survives January?
When Special Teams Could Make or Break a Season
Long before Seattle’s championship run, the NFL had already witnessed what happens when special teams take over a game.
On October 16, 2006, the Chicago Bears trailed Arizona 23-3 late in the third quarter. Their offense had struggled badly, and quarterback Rex Grossman committed six turnovers.
Chicago’s defense responded with two fumble-return touchdowns. Suddenly, the Bears had a chance.
With 2:58 remaining, rookie returner Devin Hester caught an Arizona punt and took off. He raced 83 yards into the end zone, giving Chicago a 24-23 lead.
The Bears held on to win despite scoring only three offensive points, completing one of the NFL’s most improbable comebacks.
Hester finished that rookie season with five punt and kickoff return touchdowns. He added a 108-yard touchdown on a missed field-goal return.
Then came Super Bowl XLI.
Against Indianapolis, Hester returned the opening kickoff 92 yards for another touchdown. Chicago eventually lost 29-17, but the play remains one of the most memorable opening moments in Super Bowl history.
The Pro Football Hall of Fame inducted Hester in 2024, recognizing a player who made opposing coaches rethink how they approached every kick.
His career showed that a return specialist could change the outcome of a game without ever lining up on offense.
The 2010 Chargers learned the opposite lesson
Four years after Hester’s remarkable rookie season, San Diego showed how disastrous poor special teams execution could become.
The 2010 Chargers led the NFL in total offensive yards gained and total defensive yards allowed. Philip Rivers directed a productive passing attack, while the defense regularly restricted opposing offenses.
Yet San Diego finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs.
The special teams failures were extraordinary.
The Chargers surrendered three kickoff-return touchdowns and one punt-return score. Opponents also blocked five San Diego punts.
Those breakdowns helped produce a 2-5 start that left the Chargers chasing the division race. An NFL review of San Diego’s special teams problems detailed how those mistakes contributed to the disappointing season.
San Diego finished last in special teams DVOA that season.
A team with league-leading offensive and defensive yardage still couldn’t overcome repeated mistakes in football’s third phase.
That’s why NFL special teams rankings deserve more attention than they usually receive.
Great offenses can generate yards. Strong defenses can force punts. Neither guarantees much when the coverage team repeatedly gives those advantages away.
The Hidden Yardage That Never Makes the Highlights
A 15-yard punt return doesn’t look particularly spectacular on television.
There’s no touchdown celebration, no dramatic replay, and usually no mention during the postgame interviews.
Still, those 15 yards can completely change the next possession.
An offense starting at its own 40-yard line faces a shorter journey to scoring range than one backed up at the 25. Its coordinator can call plays with greater flexibility, while the opposing defense has less room to protect.
Consider what happens when an excellent punter flips that equation.
Johnny Hekker’s value went beyond distance
During the Los Angeles Rams’ 24-10 victory over Chicago in October 2020, Johnny Hekker placed all five of his punts at or inside the Bears’ 10-yard line.
Those kicks helped Los Angeles dictate field position without asking the offense to produce additional yards.
The first four punts created advantageous defensive situations that eventually led to four Rams scoring drives. Hekker earned NFC Special Teams Player of the Week honors for his performance, according to the Rams’ official report.
Now imagine evaluating that game by punting distance alone.
Hekker’s longest kick traveled 63 yards, but the more revealing detail was where Chicago kept starting its possessions.
This is exactly the kind of contribution that advanced football analytics try to capture.
Aaron Schatz developed Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) to measure how much value teams create compared with league expectations.
For special teams, that means looking beyond the distance of a punt or the length of a return. The model accounts for the value generated by kicking, coverage, and field position.
Hekker’s performance illustrates the difference better than any complicated formula.
A 60-yard punt that comes flying back for a 25-yard return isn’t necessarily worth more than a 45-yarder that leaves the opposing quarterback standing near his own goal line.
The same principle applies to kickoff coverage. Giving an opponent the ball at its own 20 instead of the 35 means its offense must gain another 15 yards before reaching the same position.
Across multiple possessions, those advantages can accumulate.
NFL special teams rankings built around DVOA help identify teams that consistently win those exchanges, even when their specialists rarely appear on highlight reels.
That advantage becomes particularly valuable against dangerous quarterbacks.
Pinning Patrick Mahomes inside his own 10 doesn’t guarantee a stop, but it forces Kansas City to travel farther before threatening the scoreboard.
Sometimes that extra distance makes the difference between a punt and another scoring drive.
Seattle’s 2025 Championship Run Showed the Bigger Picture
By the end of the 2025 regular season, Seattle had established itself as one of the NFL’s most complete teams.
The Seahawks finished 14-3 and earned the NFC’s top seed.
Their success wasn’t built around offensive dominance alone.
In fact, Aaron Schatz’s final FTN DVOA ratings placed Seattle’s offense just tenth in the league. The defense finished first, while the special teams unit ranked second with an 8.6% DVOA.
That last number helped explain why Seattle could win without asking Sam Darnold to carry every game.
The Seahawks had a defense capable of shutting down opponents and special teams that could create points or favorable field position. FTN ranked Seattle first overall, reflecting the combined strength of all three phases.
These weren’t just encouraging numbers sitting on an analyst’s screen.
Seattle had already demonstrated what they meant during difficult regular-season games.
Jason Myers rescued an offense that couldn’t score touchdowns
On December 14, 2025, Seattle hosted Indianapolis and struggled to reach the end zone.
The Seahawks never scored an offensive touchdown.
Instead, Jason Myers converted six field goals, including attempts from 47, 52, 46, 32, 30, and 56 yards.
The final kick carried the most weight.
Indianapolis had just taken a 16-15 lead on Blake Grupe’s 60-yard field goal. With 42 seconds remaining, Darnold had to move Seattle into range.
Two completions to Shaheed helped produce the opportunity.
Myers stepped forward and connected from 56 yards with 18 seconds left.
Seattle won 18-16.
The kicker accounted for every Seahawks point that afternoon, turning six drives without touchdowns into a victory. The Seahawks’ official recap highlighted his franchise-record six field goals.
For a team chasing the NFC’s top seed, that reliability mattered.
A single missed kick could have changed the result.
Rashid Shaheed sparked a comeback against the Rams
Four days later, Seattle faced Los Angeles in a game with major playoff implications.
The Seahawks trailed 30-14 in the fourth quarter.
Their offense needed help, and the clock was becoming an enemy.
Then Shaheed changed everything.
He fielded a punt and raced 58 yards for a touchdown, cutting Seattle’s deficit to eight after a successful two-point conversion.
The Seahawks eventually forced overtime and won 38-37, moving ahead of the Rams in the NFC standings. The Seahawks’ account of the comeback captured how dramatically Shaheed’s return changed the momentum.
One return had given Seattle something its offense desperately needed: immediate points without consuming valuable time.
It also illustrated why NFL special teams rankings can reveal strengths that conventional offensive statistics miss.
Seattle didn’t need a long drive to recover momentum. Shaheed provided it with a single return.
Five field goals helped finish the job in Super Bowl LX
By February 8, 2026, Seattle had reached Super Bowl LX against New England.
The Seahawks’ defense dominated much of the evening, frustrating Drake Maye and limiting the Patriots’ offensive production. Seattle’s own offense also struggled to finish drives, leaving Myers to keep the scoreboard moving.
He delivered five field goals and scored 17 points, including two extra points. His first four successful kicks accounted for all 12 of Seattle’s points through three quarters, giving the Seahawks a lead while their offense searched for its first touchdown.
The fifth field goal established a new Super Bowl record. Seattle eventually defeated New England 29-13, winning its second championship.
According to the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s report on Myers’ record-setting performance, he finished the regular season and postseason with 206 combined points, an NFL record.
Kenneth Walker III earned Super Bowl MVP honors after rushing for 135 yards, while Seattle’s defense controlled the game. Myers didn’t need to win the award to leave his mark.
Every time the Seahawks settled for a field goal instead of a touchdown, he made sure they came away with three points. Those kicks allowed Seattle to maintain control until the offense finally reached the end zone.
His performance also put the team’s special teams ranking into perspective. Seattle hadn’t simply benefited from one spectacular return in January. Its specialists had been creating advantages throughout the season.
Why Special Teams Still Can’t Carry a Championship Team Alone
Seattle’s success makes a compelling argument for investing in the kicking game.
But consider what happened to the New York Jets during that same season.
The Jets actually finished ahead of Seattle in special teams DVOA, posting a league-leading 10.2% rating.
Their kicking and return units consistently produced positive results.
Unfortunately, New York finished 3-14.
The offense struggled to move the ball, while the defense allowed opponents far too many scoring opportunities.
Aaron Schatz’s final FTN ratings painted an extraordinary contrast. The Jets ranked first in special teams but 30th on offense and 31st on defense.
Their special teams were among the best in NFL history, while the rest of the roster performed like one of the league’s weakest teams.
That tells us something important about postseason predictions.
A great returner can steal seven points. A reliable kicker can turn three stalled drives into nine. Neither can consistently rescue a defense surrendering touchdowns or an offense that cannot sustain possessions.
The numbers support what coaches see every Sunday.
Matthew Ladden and Ethan Seung examined more than two decades of NFL performance data in their 2024 study, Evaluating the Impact of Special Teams on Winning, published by the Wharton Sports Analytics Journal.
Their findings help explain why the Jets couldn’t turn excellent special teams into victories. They found that an offensive play had roughly 3.6 times the impact of a special teams play on winning percentage. A defensive play carried about 2.6 times the impact.
Think about a quarterback converting third-and-long.
He extends a drive, keeps his defense resting on the sideline, and creates another opportunity to score. One successful play can lead to several more.
A perfectly executed punt might flip the field, but the punting team still needs its defense to force a stop.
That’s where the difference lies. Special teams can provide a sudden swing, but offense and defense have far more opportunities to dictate how a game unfolds.
The research measured overall winning percentage rather than playoff advancement specifically. It doesn’t establish that special teams rankings independently predict postseason success.
Philadelphia’s 2024 championship offers another useful perspective.
Jake Elliott converted only 28 of 36 regular-season field-goal attempts, a 77.8% success rate, according to his official NFL kicking statistics. That didn’t prevent the Eagles from finishing 14-3.
Their dominant defense and powerful rushing attack carried them through the postseason.
When Philadelphia defeated Kansas City 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX, Elliott converted all four of his field-goal attempts.
The Eagles didn’t need flawless kicking throughout the regular season. They needed their specialists to execute when the championship demanded it.
That’s where the distinction becomes clear.
Special teams can decide a close game, but they rarely compensate for a consistently overmatched offense or defense.
Seattle possessed that balance. The Jets didn’t.
The NFL’s New Kickoff Rules Have Changed the Equation
The NFL’s constantly shifting kickoff rules make evaluating special teams a moving target.
In 2024, the league introduced its dynamic kickoff format to encourage returns while reducing high-speed collisions.
The following year, owners moved the standard touchback spot on kicks reaching the end zone to the receiving team’s 35-yard line.
That small adjustment changed how teams approached kickoffs.
According to Pro Football Focus’s analysis of the new kickoff format, the kickoff return rate jumped from 34.7% in 2024 to 75.9% in 2025.
More than three out of every four kickoffs were being returned, giving specialists additional opportunities to change field position or score touchdowns.
For players like Shaheed, that created another avenue to influence games.
Coverage teams faced a much greater responsibility, too.
A poorly covered kickoff could surrender 40 yards or more. An accurately placed kick with disciplined coverage could force an opponent to begin well short of the 35-yard touchback spot.
Those differences add up over a season.
The changes also make NFL special teams rankings more difficult to compare across eras. A return average from 2025 doesn’t carry the same meaning as one from 2018, when the rules created different opportunities.
Teams must now adjust their personnel, blocking schemes, and kickoff strategies around a format that puts the ball in play much more often.
That makes the work of special teams coordinators increasingly valuable.
The Next Playoff Difference Might Be the One Nobody Notices
Every postseason brings a familiar debate.
Which quarterback can handle the pressure? Which defense can disrupt the passing game? Who has the better offensive line?
Those questions deserve attention.
But the strongest contenders also need to know what happens after fourth down.
A punter who pins an opposing quarterback near his own goal line can give a defense valuable room to work. A returner who starts an offense near midfield might eliminate the need for several difficult third-down conversions.
One accurate kick can rescue an otherwise disappointing possession.
For playoff analysts, NFL special teams rankings should serve as another piece of the championship puzzle.
An elite ranking doesn’t automatically establish a Super Bowl favorite. The available research doesn’t demonstrate that special teams rankings alone reliably predict deep playoff runs.
Still, the games provide plenty of evidence that these contributions can decide individual outcomes.
Seattle’s 2025 season offered several examples. Myers rescued the Seahawks against Indianapolis, Shaheed helped trigger a comeback against the Rams, and both later delivered memorable postseason performances.
None of those moments existed in isolation.
Seattle also needed a dominant defense, reliable coaching, and enough offensive production to survive difficult matchups.
As the league continues adjusting kickoff rules, teams must find new ways to win those exchanges. The difference between a touchback and a strong return can change an entire possession.
Coaches already understand that. They spend countless practice hours rehearsing coverage assignments, protection schemes, and kicking mechanics that fans rarely notice.
The payoff might not arrive until January.
When two evenly matched teams face each other with a season on the line, one can gain the advantage without completing a pass or forcing a turnover.
Sometimes the difference is a perfectly placed punt.
Sometimes it’s a kicker who refuses to miss.
And sometimes, as Seattle demonstrated, the road to a Super Bowl begins with 95 yards that nobody on offense ever had to gain.
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FAQs
Do NFL special teams rankings predict playoff success?
Not by themselves. Seattle’s 2025 championship showed their value, but the Jets led special teams DVOA and still finished 3-14.
Why does field position matter so much in the NFL playoffs?
Starting closer to midfield gives an offense fewer yards to cover. Strong returns and well-placed punts can change the next possession.
What does special teams DVOA measure?
It compares kicking, punting, returns, and coverage against league expectations to show how much value a team’s special teams generate.
How many field goals did Jason Myers make in Super Bowl LX?
Myers made five field goals, setting a Super Bowl record as Seattle defeated New England 29-13.
How did the NFL’s new kickoff rules affect returns?
The 2025 touchback change encouraged more returns. The return rate reached 75.9%, giving specialists more chances to flip field position.
