Bo Nix lined up for fourth-and-1 at his own 39-yard line with the last AFC playoff spot still open. Denver already led Kansas City by a touchdown on Jan. 5, 2025, the final Sunday of the regular season. A win or a tie would send the Broncos to the playoffs. Sean Payton kept his offense on the field. Nix pushed ahead for the first down, then found Courtland Sutton deep for 47 yards on the next snap. Two plays later, Denver scored again.
A night earlier in Pittsburgh, the Bengals had beaten the Steelers 19–17 in 19-degree weather. Their fifth straight win bought them another afternoon of football, all of it on television. Cincinnati needed Kansas City to beat Denver and Miami to lose or tie against the Jets. Both games kicked off in the same window. The Chiefs had already secured the AFC’s top seed, so the quarterback Cincinnati needed to lead a comeback was Carson Wentz.
The 78-percentage-point gap in Denver’s playoff odds
Eight days earlier, Joe Burrow had found Tee Higgins for a three-yard touchdown in overtime. Cincinnati’s 30–24 win kept the Bengals alive and denied Denver a chance to clinch. Miami stayed in the race, too. The Broncos still controlled the last AFC spot, but they had one game left to claim it.
Entering Week 18, Next Gen Stats gave Denver an 83 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. A win would guarantee a berth. A loss would leave the Broncos with a 22 percent chance, depending on how the other games went. That put 78 percentage points between the two outcomes. Cincinnati had an 11 percent chance even if it beat Pittsburgh. Winning on Saturday kept the Bengals alive, but a single result on Sunday could still send them home.
Nix completed his first 18 passes and threw a touchdown on each of Denver’s first three possessions. By halftime, the Broncos led 24–0. The Jets gave Cincinnati one of the results it needed with a 32–20 win over Miami. Denver took care of the other scoreboard, beating Kansas City 38–0 to claim the AFC’s seventh seed and a trip to Buffalo. Afterward, Nix circled the lower bowl at Mile High, slapping hands with fans as Denver celebrated its first playoff berth since the 2015 season.
How one touchdown changes two scoreboards
At 24–0, Cincinnati still needed a Kansas City comeback. The halftime score told Bengals fans how much ground the Chiefs had to make up. Next Gen Stats put a number on the chances they could do it.
As the score and clock change, a machine-learning model updates each team’s chance of winning. Next Gen Stats feeds those odds into its postseason forecast, which it refreshes every five minutes during live games. The bigger Denver’s lead, the fewer simulated finishes in which Kansas City comes back and gives Cincinnati a shot.
Next Gen Stats has described playing out the remaining schedule 10,000 times per forecast. Give Kansas City a comeback in one run and Miami a win in the same run, and Cincinnati still stays home. Give the Chiefs the win and Miami a loss or tie, and the Bengals get in. The league’s tiebreakers settle the standings in each run. The share of runs that send Cincinnati to the playoffs becomes its estimated chance of qualifying.
Buffalo was watching the same race for a different reason. The Bills already knew they would host the seventh seed. Depending on how Sunday went, they could draw Denver, Cincinnati or Miami. Each simulated finish sent one of those teams to Buffalo. Count how often each opponent appears and you can see which matchup looks most likely before the field is set.
What a model can’t settle before kickoff
Kansas City’s 15–1 record told you how the Chiefs earned their bye. It could tell you only so much about the lineup that would try to stop Nix. The league’s Week 18 preview already expected Kansas City to rest starters, and Wentz took the snaps in Denver. A simulation can account for a lineup change once analysts estimate its effect. That estimate still has to answer a football question. How much weaker are the Chiefs with Wentz under center and regulars resting on defense?
Two pregame forecasts, one with the usual starters and one with key players resting, could show how much the playoff race hinges on the inactive list. A wide gap between those forecasts would tell fans which lineup decision to watch.
The longer test comes after the season. Across enough comparable forecasts, teams given an 80 percent chance should make the playoffs about eight times in ten. Denver’s win tells us how one race ended. Years of forecasts would tell us how much weight to put on the next percentage. That matters on the bubble, where a result in another stadium can change a January travel plan or end a season outright.
Cincinnati had won five straight to get to Sunday. The Jets gave the Bengals the result they needed, but in Denver, Nix lowered his shoulders, got the yard and kept the drive alive. The Bengals had won every game they could for five weeks. They had to watch their season end without taking another snap.
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FAQs
Q1. How does Next Gen Stats calculate NFL playoff odds?
A. It simulates the remaining schedule 10,000 times. A team’s playoff odds reflect how often it qualifies in those simulations.
Q2. Why did Denver’s playoff chances depend so much on Week 18?
A. A win or tie would clinch a berth. If Denver lost, Next Gen Stats gave it a 22 percent chance of getting in.
Q3. What did the Bengals need to make the playoffs in Week 18?
A. Cincinnati needed to beat Pittsburgh, Denver had to lose to Kansas City, and Miami had to lose or tie against the Jets.
Q4. How often does Next Gen Stats update playoff odds during games?
A. It refreshes the forecast every five minutes during live games using the latest win probabilities.
Q5. Who took the final AFC playoff spot in the 2024 season?
A. Denver claimed the seventh seed by beating Kansas City 38–0. The Broncos then traveled to Buffalo for the Wild Card round.
