Pitch framing metrics didn’t shake Progressive Field on Saturday night. José Ramírez’s fourth-inning home run did. The ball sailed into the right-field seats, Cleveland grabbed a two-run lead, and Gavin Williams went back to work against Chicago. By the final out, the Guardians had recorded 21 strikeouts, a postseason record for a nine-inning game.
Patrick Bailey spent that evening behind the plate, handling Williams’ fastball and everything Cleveland’s bullpen threw afterward. The pitchers supplied the velocity. Bailey had to catch those pitches cleanly, keep his glove steady and give the umpire every reason to call a strike.
Now Cleveland faces Tampa Bay for the American League pennant. Milwaukee and Los Angeles have already started their National League Championship Series, with the Brewers taking Sunday’s opener 2-1.
Four teams remain, and their catchers bring different strengths behind the plate. Bailey has built a reputation for stealing strikes. William Contreras provides Milwaukee with offensive production that outweighs his weaker framing numbers. Will Smith and Hunter Feduccia give the Dodgers two distinct receiving options.
The Automated Ball-Strike Challenge System (ABS) adds another wrinkle. Catchers can still influence the umpire’s original call, but they can now challenge it when they believe the ball crossed the strike zone. That changes the job. Stealing a strike matters, but knowing when to ask for one back might matter just as much.
What the framing numbers say about the final four
Baseball Savant’s 2026 regular-season data show a noticeable difference among the eight catchers remaining in October.
Cleveland has two catchers with positive framing value. Milwaukee’s primary receivers both finished below average. Tampa Bay sits near the middle, while Los Angeles has a backup whose framing numbers exceed those of its established starter.
| Catcher | Team | Framing runs | Shadow-zone strike rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Bailey | Guardians | +5 | 47.5% |
| Hunter Feduccia | Dodgers | +5 | 47.2% |
| Austin Hedges | Guardians | +2 | 48.9% |
| Liam Hicks | Rays | +1 | 47.8% |
| Will Smith | Dodgers | -1 | 48.2% |
| Nick Fortes | Rays | -2 | 47.3% |
| Gary Sánchez | Brewers | -2 | 45.8% |
| William Contreras | Brewers | -7 | 46.2% |
Source: Baseball Savant, 2026 regular-season catcher framing leaderboard. Totals include pitches caught with previous organizations.
Framing runs estimate how much value a catcher gains or loses through called-strike decisions. Statcast adjusts for pitch location and other factors. The shadow-zone strike rate measures how often taken pitches around the strike-zone boundary become called strikes.
The workload matters, too. Contreras received 9,064 pitches during the regular season. Smith handled only 4,225 because a neck injury kept him out for nearly three months. Their totals don’t represent equal opportunities. Nor do they tell us where each catcher performs best.
Bailey’s strongest receiving work comes near the upper boundary. Fortes has done considerably better on low pitches. Contreras has struggled with elevated offerings. Those differences become much more interesting when matched with the pitchers each catcher must handle.
ABS makes every borderline call a strategic decision
Imagine a 1-2 fastball clipping the outside corner.
The catcher sticks the landing, keeping his glove quiet as the pitch reaches the pocket. The umpire calls a ball. Under the new system, the catcher can immediately tap his helmet and challenge that ruling. A computerized review determines whether the baseball crossed the strike zone.
Each team begins with two challenges. Successful reviews preserve them, while unsuccessful attempts cost one.
According to Baseball-Reference’s 2026 ABS challenge analysis, major league players challenged 10,557 pitches during the regular season. Officials overturned 5,685 calls, a 53.9% success rate.
Catchers were the most accurate challengers, winning 58.6% of their attempts. Batters succeeded 48.8% of the time, while pitchers managed 39.6%.
The catcher’s viewing position offers an advantage, but deciding whether to challenge requires more than a good look. A missed call with nobody aboard in the second inning presents a different calculation from a full-count pitch with the bases loaded in the eighth.
There’s another catch. A receiver might persuade an umpire to call a strike just outside the zone, only for the batter to challenge successfully.
That’s why framing and ABS work together without measuring the same skill. Statcast credits framing based on the umpire’s initial call and accounts for overturned decisions separately.
For the remaining teams, the practical question is simple: Which pitches deserve a challenge, and which catchers have the best chance of recognizing them?
Patrick Bailey gives Cleveland an edge near the top
Cleveland didn’t acquire Patrick Bailey for his bat.
When the Guardians traded pitching prospect Matt Wilkinson and the No. 29 pick in the 2026 MLB Draft to San Francisco on May 9, Bailey was hitting .146. His reputation behind the plate made the investment worthwhile.
The two-time Gold Glove winner had led Major League Baseball with 25 framing runs in 2025, according to Statcast. His 2026 total dropped to five, but his ability to receive elevated pitches remained a strength. Baseball Savant credited Bailey with approximately four framing runs near the upper boundary.
That matters for Gavin Williams and Cade Smith, two pitchers capable of attacking hitters with hard fastballs above the middle of the plate.
Bailey’s glove can protect Cleveland’s challenges
Watch Bailey receive a fastball near the top of the zone.
He doesn’t need to yank the glove toward his chest. Instead, he establishes his target, follows the pitch and controls the reception without making the movement look exaggerated. That steadiness can help a borderline fastball earn a called strike.
Consider a hypothetical late-game confrontation with Williams facing Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero. The count reaches 1-2. Williams throws a fastball toward the upper edge, and Bailey receives it cleanly. The umpire calls ball two.
Bailey now faces a choice. If he believes the pitch clipped the computerized zone, a successful challenge would end the at-bat immediately. With runners aboard and two outs, that could be worth risking one of Cleveland’s challenges.
If the ball appeared clearly high, challenging would offer little benefit. Even Bailey’s strong receiving record cannot change its actual location.
His framing skill helps Cleveland in another way. Every legitimate strike he secures through the original call leaves the Guardians’ challenges available for later.
Austin Hedges gives Stephen Vogt another receiving specialist. Hedges finished with two positive framing runs and a 48.9% shadow-zone strike rate. His own numbers were strongest near the upper boundary, where he gained approximately five framing runs.
Cleveland’s catchers are well suited to a staff that likes working above hitters’ barrels. The ABS system gives them another opportunity to capitalize when an umpire misses one of those pitches.
Nick Fortes is a different catcher when pitches stay low
Nick Fortes built most of his early major league career with Miami before Tampa Bay acquired him for outfield prospect Matthew Etzel in July 2025.
His first full season with the Rays produced modest overall framing numbers: minus-two runs and a 47.3% shadow-zone strike rate. Those totals hide a sharp difference between two receiving areas.
Fortes gained approximately five framing runs near the bottom of the zone but lost six near the top. That makes his performance particularly sensitive to where a pitcher prefers to work.
A low sinker, changeup or breaking ball requires different receiving mechanics from an elevated four-seamer. The glove often finishes closer to the ground, and the catcher must avoid stabbing downward as the pitch arrives. Fortes has handled that lower area better than his overall ranking suggests.
A low pitch creates an ABS opportunity
Imagine Drew Rasmussen working against José Ramírez with a runner on second.
Rasmussen attacks the bottom edge with a sinker. Fortes receives it just above the dirt, but the umpire calls a ball. The catcher must judge where the pitch crossed the plate, not merely where it reached his glove.
That’s especially important with a moving pitch. ABS evaluates the baseball’s location as it crosses the middle of home plate. A sinker can continue dropping after passing that point.
If Fortes believes the pitch caught the automated zone, a challenge could turn a hitter-friendly count into a pitcher-friendly one. But he shouldn’t challenge every low pitch that looks close.
The Rays will need those decisions late in games, particularly against a Cleveland lineup that can manufacture runs without stringing together several hard-hit balls.
Liam Hicks gives Tampa Bay another option. The Rays acquired Hicks from Miami at the August 2026 trade deadline, adding a left-handed hitter who finished with one positive framing run and a 47.8% shadow-zone strike rate.
Unlike Fortes, Hicks showed positive receiving value near both the upper and lower boundaries. That flexibility could help Kevin Cash match catchers with his pitchers.
Fortes’ lower-zone performance might suit one assignment, while Hicks’ more balanced results could fit another. Their ability to judge challenges adds another consideration, although the framing leaderboard alone cannot establish which catcher will make better ABS decisions.
William Contreras must handle Milwaukee’s high-velocity pitches
William Contreras remains one of Milwaukee’s most important offensive players. His production at the plate gives Pat Murphy a reason to keep him in the lineup, even when the framing numbers aren’t flattering.
Contreras finished the regular season with minus-seven framing runs, the lowest total among the remaining catchers. His 46.2% shadow-zone strike rate also trails several of his postseason counterparts.
Break those numbers down by location, and the upper boundary stands out. Contreras lost approximately three framing runs on pitches near the top of the zone. He also recorded negative value along one horizontal edge.
That creates a particular challenge when catching Jacob Misiorowski.
Misiorowski’s velocity makes every call harder
Misiorowski can push his fastball beyond 100 mph. At that speed, the catcher has very little time to complete the receiving motion.
A pitch near the letters can tempt a receiver into reaching upward. If the glove jumps at contact, a borderline offering may look less convincing. Contreras needs to receive those fastballs without introducing unnecessary movement.
The difficulty extends to ABS.
Suppose Misiorowski throws a high fastball on a 2-2 count against Shohei Ohtani. Contreras catches it near the upper boundary, but the umpire calls ball three.
If the pitch clipped the zone, Milwaukee could recover a strikeout through a challenge. The catcher must decide whether he saw enough to justify it.
Misiorowski’s velocity increases the difficulty of making that judgment. A fastball that appears to touch the upper edge may have passed just above it. Contreras cannot challenge simply because the pitcher executed what appeared to be a good pitch.
Milwaukee’s 2-1 victory over Los Angeles in Sunday’s NLCS opener showed the value of protecting narrow leads. Misiorowski allowed one run across 4⅓ innings, and four Brewers relievers kept the Dodgers scoreless the rest of the way.
Those are the situations where one additional strike can save an expensive pitch or prevent a walk. Contreras also has to consider the value of saving a challenge for Trevor Megill or Abner Uribe in a late inning.
Gary Sánchez provides catching depth, although his minus-two framing runs don’t point to a clear improvement in this particular measurement.
Milwaukee needs Contreras’ bat. The challenge is helping its pitchers preserve runs without wasting ABS opportunities on pitches that missed the zone.
Will Smith and Hunter Feduccia give Los Angeles two receiving options
Will Smith’s limited 2026 workload needs context.
The Dodgers’ starting catcher missed nearly three months with an inflamed disc in his neck. He returned when rosters expanded in September, having handled far fewer pitches than most established starters.
Los Angeles needed reinforcements during his absence. Dalton Rushing took on more catching responsibilities before suffering an elbow injury. The Dodgers then reacquired Hunter Feduccia from Tampa Bay on August 3.
Feduccia had appeared in 60 games for the Rays before returning to Los Angeles. Their framing numbers present an unusual comparison.
Smith finished with minus-one framing run and a 48.2% shadow-zone strike rate. Feduccia produced five positive framing runs, despite a slightly lower strike rate of 47.2%.
The difference reflects the locations and circumstances of their called pitches. It doesn’t prove Feduccia will outperform Smith in every situation. Smith remains the established starter and a valuable offensive contributor.
Yamamoto’s splitter puts Smith’s ABS judgment to work
Few pitches create a more demanding receiving assignment than Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s splitter.
The ball approaches the plate on a fastball-like path before dropping sharply. A catcher must anticipate that movement without allowing his glove to collapse toward the dirt.
Smith has spent considerable time refining his receiving technique. In May, he explained to the Los Angeles Times that ABS had made framing more valuable in certain respects. Gaining strikes without using challenges allows a team to preserve those opportunities.
His receiving adjustments emphasized working forward through the ball rather than letting it travel deeper before completing the catch. That technique becomes especially relevant with Yamamoto.
Picture a seventh-inning confrontation against Milwaukee’s Jackson Chourio.
Yamamoto throws a splitter on a full count. The pitch appears to drop below the knees as Smith receives it, and the umpire calls ball four. Smith believes it crossed the lower boundary before falling farther.
A successful ABS challenge would turn the walk into a strikeout. Depending on the runners and outs, that could save Los Angeles from a difficult inning.
But the splitter’s late movement complicates the judgment. Where the glove finishes doesn’t necessarily reveal where the ball crossed the automated zone. Smith must trust his view of the pitch’s flight.
A similar decision could arise with Tyler Glasnow’s elevated fastball. The receiving mechanics change, but the challenge calculation remains the same.
Feduccia gives Dave Roberts another capable receiver if the Dodgers need a different defensive look. His positive framing numbers strengthen that option, although replacing Smith would also remove an important bat from the lineup.
Los Angeles must weigh the complete catching assignment rather than allowing one defensive statistic to dictate the decision.
The best framing numbers don’t settle the debate
Fans want to crown one superior catcher. October rarely makes it that easy.
Bailey has the strongest established framing reputation among the remaining starters, but Contreras brings greater offensive responsibility. Smith offers experience with Los Angeles’ pitching staff, while Fortes has a specific receiving strength that could help Tampa Bay.
The numbers also cover very different workloads. Contreras handled more than twice as many pitches as Smith. Feduccia split his season between two organizations. Bailey joined Cleveland in May and had to learn an unfamiliar pitching staff.
Those differences matter. A catcher can save a strike in the first inning and allow a run to score on a missed block in the eighth. Another might struggle with framing but end a rally by throwing out a runner attempting to steal second.
Statcast measures blocking and throwing separately. It cannot perfectly capture every part of pitch calling, preparation or communication.
ABS introduces another skill that traditional framing numbers don’t describe. Some receivers may excel at earning borderline calls but struggle to determine which missed calls deserve challenges. Others might possess an accurate sense of the strike zone while producing only modest framing value.
The strongest postseason performances will combine those abilities with the other demands of catching.
For Cleveland, that means Bailey helping Williams and the bullpen attack the upper boundary. Tampa Bay must decide how Fortes and Hicks fit different pitching assignments.
Contreras has to handle Milwaukee’s velocity, while Smith must guide a Dodgers rotation with several distinct pitch shapes. Their regular-season numbers offer clues. The next several games will test how useful those clues become.
One challenge could decide the road to the World Series
The Brewers already own a one-game lead over the Dodgers. Cleveland and Tampa Bay open their ALCS on October 12, with each club hoping its pitching staff can carry it through another demanding series.
The catcher matchups deserve attention beyond the framing leaderboard.
Bailey’s receiving ability could help Cleveland secure upper-zone strikes against Tampa Bay’s hitters. When an umpire misses one, his challenge judgment will determine whether the Guardians recover it.
Fortes faces the opposite assignment. His best framing results came near the bottom of the zone, where sinkers and breaking balls can continue dropping after crossing the plate.
For Contreras, the challenge involves velocity. Misiorowski’s fastball can overpower hitters, but its speed also makes borderline locations difficult to judge from behind the plate.
Smith must handle Yamamoto’s splitter and Glasnow’s fastball while preserving Los Angeles’ challenges for the situations that justify using them.
Each catcher has a different problem to solve. There’s also the possibility that the most valuable receiving play won’t involve a challenge at all.
Imagine a ninth-inning confrontation with two outs and the tying run on third.
The pitcher delivers a fastball toward the outside corner. The catcher receives it cleanly, holds the glove steady and hears the umpire call strike three.
No helmet tap. No automated review.
The catcher doesn’t need to ask for the strike because the umpire already gave it to him.
That remains the central value behind pitch framing metrics. They help identify catchers who repeatedly turn competitive pitches into favorable calls.
ABS offers another chance when the first decision goes wrong, but the challenge supply remains limited. Good receiving can preserve those chances until a missed call becomes too important to accept.
Over a full season, those differences accumulate across thousands of pitches. In October, a single decision might carry more weight than all the others.
The best catcher may not be the one who steals the most strikes. He may be the one who knows exactly when to ask for one back.
READ MORE: The October Strike Zone: Tracking Called Pitches Across the Division Series
FAQs
What do pitch framing metrics measure?
They estimate how often a catcher earns called strikes on borderline pitches and convert that receiving skill into runs saved or lost.
Does ABS make catcher framing less important?
No. Catchers still influence the umpire’s first call. ABS can correct mistakes, but good receiving helps teams save their limited challenges.
Which remaining playoff catchers had the best framing numbers in 2026?
Patrick Bailey and Hunter Feduccia each recorded plus-five framing runs, the highest totals among the eight catchers discussed in this article.
Why did Will Smith receive fewer pitches in 2026?
A neck injury sidelined the Dodgers catcher for nearly three months. He received 4,225 pitches, far fewer than Milwaukee’s William Contreras.
How often did catchers win ABS challenges in 2026?
Catchers successfully overturned 58.6% of their regular-season challenges, outperforming both batters and pitchers, according to Baseball-Reference.
