The heat around Blaine
3M Open Power Rankings should begin where this tournament usually tightens: late-July heat, soft noise from the grandstands, and a ball tracking toward water on the 18th. TPC Twin Cities never looks cruel from a distance. Fairways feel generous. Greens invite wedges. By lunch, the scoreboard glows red.
Then the course asks for one more brave swing.
Tournament play runs July 23-26 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, where the 2026 field gains its loudest draw yet with Scottie Scheffler making his first appearance at Minnesota’s PGA Tour stop. That changes the week. Scheffler brings the sport’s biggest shadow into a tournament that has often lived on volatility, breakthrough runs, and late-season desperation.
The setup keeps everyone honest. A 2025 course sheet listed TPC Twin Cities at 7,431 yards, par 71, with 27 water hazards and water in play on 15 holes. Those hazards matter on the short par-4 16th, where aggression can turn into a trap. They matter even more on the par-5 18th, where the lake sits like a dare.
So the question cuts cleanly: who has enough firepower to chase birdies and enough nerve to keep staring down the water?
Why TPC Twin Cities refuses one easy formula
When the tournament debuted in 2019, TPC Twin Cities looked like a bomber’s playground. Matthew Wolff won the first edition with a wild, unforgettable eagle walk-off. Back then, the place felt young, loud, and slightly untamed.
Since then, the winners’ circle has proved there is no single formula here. Michael Thompson won with clinical control in 2020. Tony Finau leaned on patience and power in 2022. Lee Hodges ran away from the field in 2023. Jhonattan Vegas surged in 2024. Kurt Kitayama closed 2025 at 23-under, edging Sam Stevens by one shot.
That is why this board prioritizes three traits: current form, ball-striking, and the nerve to handle a volatile scoreboard. Star power helps. Course fit matters more.
This tournament rewards players who can make six birdies without turning greedy. It also exposes anyone who treats every flag like an invitation. One player can gain three shots in an hour here, then give them back with one heavy swing into the lake.
This countdown weighs FedExCup position, recent PGA Tour form, comfort in low-scoring events, and the specific demands of TPC Twin Cities. The list starts with players who can win the week. It ends with the one golfer everyone else must catch.
The contenders who fit the shootout
10. Kurt Kitayama
Kurt Kitayama earned his place in the 3M Open Power Rankings by doing the hardest thing at TPC Twin Cities: finishing the job.
Last July, Kitayama showed he understood the course’s mood swings. He fired a Saturday 60, then backed it up with a final-round 65 to reach 23-under. That combination says more than the trophy photo. It says he found the balance between attack and control before the field could catch him.
The defending champion also brings a memory advantage. He has already walked those final holes with the tournament breathing on his neck. Crowd noise no longer feels new to him. No 18th-hole lake will surprise him when the pressure arrives.
But defending here rarely feels simple. The tournament now has Scheffler in the field, more elite names on the board, and fewer places to hide after a loose nine holes. Kitayama sits inside the top 30 in the current FedExCup standings, strong enough to matter and close enough to need another spike week.
His cultural imprint here feels personal. Winning with his brother Daniel on the bag gave the 2025 3M Open a family-frame ending. Fans remember that kind of image. This year, the memory helps, but the chase behind him will be louder.
9. Akshay Bhatia
Akshay Bhatia has the shot shape and nerve to make this place uncomfortable for everyone else.
Sitting 12th in the current FedExCup standings, Bhatia no longer arrives as a clever sleeper pick. He brings real season-long standing into a course that rewards bold approaches and fearless putting. His left-handed flight can work beautifully into pins that make right-handers feel cramped.
The danger comes from the same place as the appeal. Bhatia sees shots others may not try. On the short par-4 16th, that imagination can create a tournament-changing eagle chance. Near a water-lined approach, the same ambition can turn a clean card sour.
That tension makes him fascinating. Bhatia plays with the looseness of someone still young enough to trust instinct, yet his results now demand veteran expectations. The swing looks artistic, but the math has become serious.
In the 3M Open Power Rankings, he belongs inside the top 10 because this event rewards players who keep pressing. Caution can survive here. Bhatia can win only if he stays brave without becoming reckless.
8. Aaron Rai
Aaron Rai brings a different kind of danger to this tournament.
Nothing about his game screams. That works in his favor. Rai’s power lives in repetition, posture, and disciplined ball control. He keeps rounds clean while other players chase heat. When the field grows impatient, his consistency starts to feel like pressure.
The current PGA Tour season has pushed him into a new tier. Rai owns major-winning weight now after his 2026 PGA Championship victory, and his statistical profile still leans toward accuracy rather than theater. On a course where water punishes careless width, that style carries real value.
Rai must make enough birdies to keep up. That is the one fair concern. This week can turn into a track meet, and pars do not hold their value for long when the leaders reach 20-under.
Still, his path makes sense. Hit fairways. Control spin. Refuse the big mistake. On a property where 27 water hazards wait for emotional decisions, calm can do real damage.
7. Si Woo Kim
Si Woo Kim has spent years building a reputation as a guy who can lap the field or miss the cut on any given week.
That unpredictability usually scares ranking boards. At the 3M Open, it belongs in the conversation. Kim sits fifth in the current FedExCup standings, and his season has carried more week-to-week substance than the old boom-or-bust label suggests.
He can flight irons into firm windows. One nervous par save can become a birdie run. Across the course, he also gives off the sense that a strange round never fully rattles him. This venue demands that trait because momentum rarely moves in a straight line here.
The risk remains obvious. A cold putting stretch or one loose drive can drag him into the pack. Water does not forgive lazy targets, and Kim sometimes walks close to the edge.
That edge also gives him bite. Fans have watched him turn ordinary Thursdays into theater for years. If the 2026 3M Open turns restless, Kim might be the one player smiling at the mess.
6. Chris Gotterup
Chris Gotterup looks built for a course that lets power breathe.
He stands seventh in the current FedExCup standings and ranks among the Tour’s longest drivers, with a season driving-distance average north of 322 yards. On this layout, that kind of speed changes the map. Bunkers shrink. Par 5s soften. Wedges replace mid-irons.
But the 3M Open loves to bait young, aggressive hitters into mistakes. The course gives them room, then waits for one careless line. A player can feel in total command on the tee and still walk off with a double after one ball leaks toward blue.
Gotterup’s defining week would look loud. He can make the par 5s feel like obligations and turn a soft scoring day into a chase scene. The question is whether he can stay patient when birdies come easily early.
Golf fans have been waiting for his power to harden into something more reliable. This season suggests the shape has changed. Now comes the next test: overpower the course, but do not let it bait him into a fight.
5. Ludvig Åberg
Ludvig Åberg makes difficult golf look strangely clean.
His driver does not feel forced. The move stays balanced, the ball launches high, and the result often looks unfair. Sixth in the current FedExCup standings, Åberg brings the kind of athletic polish that fits this modern summer shootout perfectly.
Distance matters here, but usable distance matters more. Åberg can fly trouble without swinging like he wants to prove anything. That gives him options on the par 5s and freedom into softer pins. He can turn a course full of hazards into a course full of angles.
The missing piece has nothing to do with talent. It comes down to conversion. A 3M Open winner usually needs more than clean striking. He needs timely putting and a refusal to settle for tidy golf when the board demands a run.
Åberg’s rise has already reshaped how fans talk about young European stars. He arrived polished, composed, and ready for the largest stages faster than most players get comfortable on Tour. This week would test another part of that profile: the ability to win a sweaty birdie sprint when elegance alone is not enough.
4. Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa turns TPC Twin Cities into an iron-play argument.
Fourth in the current FedExCup standings, Morikawa brings one of the cleanest profiles in this field. He does not need to overpower the place. Instead, he needs to put the ball in the right quadrant of the fairway, stare down the right number, and let his approach game do what it has done for years.
The course gives him enough targets. Trouble starts when those targets sit too close to water. Morikawa’s best golf usually avoids emotional decisions. He picks smart lines, trusts spin, and turns restraint into pressure.
The concern remains familiar. He must putt well enough to win a shootout. In this kind of scoring race, elite iron play can create 20 birdie looks. It cannot tap them in for him.
His major-winning identity still carries weight because it came from precision under stress. Golf culture often celebrates speed first now, but Morikawa keeps reminding the sport that exactness still travels. If the wind rises or the pins start flirting with edges, his patience could look ruthless by Sunday evening.
This board places him fourth because the fit is real. The greens hold the final answer.
3. Matt Fitzpatrick
Matt Fitzpatrick is not here to impress anyone with noise.
Third in the current FedExCup standings, Fitzpatrick has stacked enough high finishes to make his 2026 season feel less like a heater and more like a sustained argument. He has turned control into offense. That matters in a week where cautious golf can lose ground but disciplined aggression can win.
His game has grown more complete over the years. The added speed did not erase the old structure. Instead, it gave him more ways to attack without losing the habits that made him a U.S. Open champion.
That blend travels well in a setting like this. Fitzpatrick can lean into scoring holes without letting the entire round become emotional. He also has the patience to accept a par when the lake on 18 makes hero golf look foolish.
The cultural note matters here. Fitzpatrick once carried the label of the grinder trying to add firepower. Now he looks like the model for how a smart player evolves. Young players chase speed every offseason. Fitzpatrick shows what happens when speed joins a system instead of replacing it.
In these 3M Open Power Rankings, he edges several flashier names because his floor feels so sturdy. Give him a warm putter, and the leaderboard gets tight in a hurry.
2. Cameron Young
Cameron Young brings thunder to Minnesota.
His driver changes the sound of a hole. It does not pop. The shot cracks, then keeps climbing. Second in the current FedExCup standings, Young enters this projection with the kind of form that turns every tee shot into a threat.
This course gives him space to use that weapon. The par 5s become attack zones. Shorter par 4s become wedge holes. Even the intimidating 18th looks different when a player can carry trouble and shorten the decision.
But power brings its own burden. Young has finally shed his reputation as a patient player waiting for a breakthrough. Now the expectation follows him. Fans do not watch him to see if he can contend. They watch to see if he can finish.
That changes Sunday pressure. A par can feel disappointing when the field expects fireworks. Safe lines can feel timid when the driver has been the whole show.
Because of this, his ranking comes down to emotional speed control. If Young lets the tournament come to him, he can bully the course. Start hunting everything, and the water gets a vote too.
1. Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler headlines the 3M Open Power Rankings because he changes the tournament the moment he steps onto the property.
The official May announcement confirmed Scheffler will make his first 3M Open appearance in 2026. That gives Minnesota’s PGA Tour stop a new center of gravity. He arrives as the world No. 1, a 20-time PGA Tour winner, and a four-time major champion. This debut also gives him something to learn, because the course will be new competitive ground.
Scheffler’s numbers explain the ranking without needing much ornament. The PGA Tour strokes-gained board has him first in total at 2.162 strokes gained per round and first tee-to-green. That number measures dominance, not reputation.
His style should travel cleanly into this week. He can drive it well enough to attack. More important, he controls misses better than almost anyone in the sport. On a course with water on 15 holes, the player who misses in the correct places owns a massive advantage.
Still, this tournament will not feel like a major. It will feel like a sprint with traps. Someone will shoot 63. Another player will make an eagle on 18 and shake the board. Scheffler must handle a different kind of pressure, one built on birdie demand rather than survival.
That is what makes his debut compelling. He brings the best game in the world to a course that rarely lets anyone coast. If the putter behaves, the rest of the field may spend four days trying to keep his shirt in view.
What this summer could tell us
The 3M Open Power Rankings sort the field before Blaine starts sorting nerve.
That distinction matters. Power rankings can measure form, course fit, FedExCup standing, and strokes-gained dominance. They cannot measure the feeling of a player standing on 18 with the wind in his shirt and the lake pulling his eyes left. Nor can they measure how a gallery’s roar from 16 changes the mood on 17. No table captures the little tremor in a hand after one swing finds water.
This 2026 edition has a different pulse because Scheffler gives the event a heavyweight favorite. Young gives it raw force. Fitzpatrick gives it structure. Morikawa gives it precision. Åberg gives it polish. Bhatia gives it imagination. Kitayama gives it memory.
The beauty of TPC Twin Cities comes from the way all those styles can work until the course asks for one more answer. A player can win here by overpowering the par 5s. Another can win by living in the fairway and holing every eight-footer that matters. The tournament has room for both stories.
Still, the lakes make the final edit. They cut out the impatient. Careless players pay immediately. They turn the 3M Open from a summer scoring party into a test of appetite.
By Sunday, the 3M Open Power Rankings will stop being a projection. The scoreboard will tell us who had the nerve to keep attacking when caution sounded smarter.
READ MORE: TPC Twin Cities Course Guide: Water risk and key stats for the 3M Open
FAQS
1. Who tops the 3M Open Power Rankings?
Scottie Scheffler sits No. 1 because his tee-to-green game travels anywhere. His first 3M Open start gives the week extra weight.
2. Why is TPC Twin Cities tricky?
TPC Twin Cities gives players birdie chances, but water waits everywhere. The 18th hole can flip a leaderboard fast.
3. Who won the 2025 3M Open?
Kurt Kitayama won the 2025 3M Open at 23-under. He beat Sam Stevens by one shot.
4. What type of golfer fits the 3M Open?
The best fit blends power, clean ball-striking, and nerve. This course rewards aggression but punishes greedy swings.
5. When is the 2026 3M Open?
Tournament play runs July 23-26 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota.
I live for the roar of the crowd, the rush of a new city, and the kind of moments that turn into lifelong memories. Sports keep me energized, travel keeps me grounded, and every journey gives me a fresh story to tell.
