When WNBA play resumes on September 17, nobody can steal a playoff spot. Several teams can still steal a better road through the bracket. Minnesota leads Golden State by two games. Atlanta and Indiana have identical records on either side of the home-court line. New York, Washington, and Dallas have piled into a three-way tie from sixth through eighth.
Four games remain for each club. That’s enough time to change a first-round opponent, but hardly enough to repair a bad week.
Consider Atlanta’s final game before the FIBA World Cup break. The Dream beat first-place Minnesota 89–81, and Rhyne Howard answered a late Lynx push with consecutive threes from the left wing. Angel Reese grabbed 11 rebounds. Allisha Gray scored 23. The win moved Atlanta into fourth, where a potential deciding Game 3 would come back to its own building.
WNBA: Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream full game highlights
Indiana watched that result from the other side of the line. The Fever have the same 26–14 record, yet the Dream currently holds the higher seed. That gap between fourth and fifth is where the final week gets personal. Who will look sharp after Berlin? Who will surrender a game that seemed safe? And when the standings settle, which team will have to win a series on somebody else’s floor?
The Bracket Makes Every Seed Hurt
All eight playoff berths are claimed. The WNBA’s final regular-season week, which ends September 24, will settle the order before the first round opens September 27. If today’s standings held, No. 1 Minnesota would draw No. 8 Dallas. No. 2 Golden State would face No. 7 Washington. No. 3 Las Vegas would meet No. 6 New York, and No. 4 Atlanta would play No. 5 Indiana.
The first round uses a best-of-three, 1–1–1 format. The higher seed hosts Game 1. The lower seed hosts Game 2. If the teams split those games, the deciding Game 3 returns to the higher seed’s arena. Home court gives a team the opener and, if necessary, the last word.
None of those pairings is final. Minnesota’s fight to hold first place leads straight into Atlanta’s fight to hold fourth: Howard’s late threes against the Lynx helped tighten one race while giving the Dream an edge in another.
Six Races That Will Shape the Playoffs
1. Minnesota’s Lead Has Shrunk to Two Games
Minnesota reached the break at 31–9, still the league’s best record. Golden State followed at 29–11. The Lynx lost their last two games; the Valkyries won four straight. Those streaks do not erase Minnesota’s lead, but they make its finish far less routine.
The No. 1 seed gets the eighth-place opponent and home court throughout a possible playoff run. For Minnesota, that means protecting a route it earned over 40 games. For Golden State, the final week offers a shot at taking it away.
Napheesa Collier and the Lynx have already seen what happens when a contender starts flat. Atlanta built a 20-point lead against them before Minnesota fought back. Howard’s fourth-quarter shooting kept that comeback from becoming a steal. The Lynx can recover from a slow opening in one regular-season game. A best-of-three series grants much less patience.
Golden State brings a different story into September. The Valkyries made the playoffs in their inaugural 2025 season. Now, in year two, Veronica Burton runs an offense for the team chasing the top seed. She averages 5.8 assists per game, while Gabby Williams scores 14.3 points per game. Those are players with a chance to turn an expansion team’s rise into the league’s most unlikely No. 1 finish.
September 17 will show whether Minnesota’s late losses were a brief wobble or whether Golden State has enough time to catch it. Atlanta already showed how to hurt the Lynx. Howard and Reese now have to turn that same force toward Indiana, the team directly behind them.
2. Atlanta and Indiana Could Play for the Right to Host Each Other
This is the bracket’s most direct fight. Atlanta and Indiana both stand at 26–14. The Dream holds fourth; the Fever sits fifth. If they finish there, they will meet immediately in the playoffs. Their final four games could decide which team hosts Game 1 and a possible Game 3.
Atlanta arrives with evidence it can trouble a favorite. In the win over Minnesota, Reese delivered 15 points and 11 rebounds, her record-setting 29th double-double of the season. Gray added 23 points and 11 rebounds. Howard scored 16 and stopped the Lynx’s late charge with two threes. Dream point guard Jordin Canada described Reese’s contribution more plainly: “She brings that grit.”
WNBA: Angel Reese’s record-setting 29th double-double
Indiana can answer with a very different attack. Caitlin Clark averages 8.4 assists and 22.5 points. Kelsey Mitchell scores 25.0 per game, while Aliyah Boston gives the Fever 16.9 points and 8.3 rebounds inside. Atlanta has to stop Clark from finding an early passing rhythm. Indiana has to keep Reese from extending possessions and make Howard work for those late-clock looks.
Home court will not decide that matchup by itself. Both teams would host at least one first-round game. Yet the fourth seed gets the opener and the potential decider. If this race comes down to the final night, Atlanta and Indiana will know exactly what each regular-season possession might buy them.
Clark and Mitchell could be preparing for Atlanta. They could also find a different opponent waiting if the Dream climbs past Las Vegas. That uncertainty reaches even further down the bracket, where three teams cannot yet tell which favorite they will face.
3. New York, Washington, and Dallas Can Rearrange the Bottom Half
Three clubs reached the break at 24–16. New York currently ranks sixth, Washington seventh, and Dallas eighth. Those numbers place the Liberty opposite Las Vegas, the Mystics opposite Golden State, and the Wings opposite Minnesota in a provisional first round.
One loss could scramble that order. It could also change the preparation, facing three very different rosters.
New York has Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones. Washington can lean on Shakira Austin inside. Dallas has Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale, and the Wings carry a four-game winning streak into the restart. A top seed drawing Dallas would get a club with the weakest seed in the field, not a club that has forgotten how to win.
The three-way jam also makes the World Cup break harder to read. Bueckers played for the United States in Berlin. Stewart captained the American side and scored 22 points in its final victory over France. Their teammates spent the pause on different schedules. New York’s Ionescu and Jones remained away from the tournament, while Stewart returned from a title run.
Will Dallas keep its streak alive after the layoff? Can New York reconnect quickly enough to climb out of sixth? Washington has the same record as both clubs and can move past either one. These teams have four games left to influence whom they face in the first round.
For Las Vegas, the movement below the third is impossible to ignore. Wilson, Gray, and Young may be studying Stewart’s Liberty one day and looking at a completely different first-round matchup the next.
4. Las Vegas Can Still Lose the Third Seed
The Aces lead Atlanta and Indiana by only one game. Las Vegas stands 27–13 and has won three straight, but the gap beneath it leaves third place exposed.
A’ja Wilson has an average of 26.0 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Chelsea Gray supplies 6.8 assists, and Jackie Young adds 18.9 points and 6.6 assists. Their roles make the late-season question concrete: can Las Vegas get all three working together immediately after the World Cup? Gray and Young played with Stewart on the United States team. Wilson also went to Berlin. The Aces now need that group back in its own timing.
Third place currently points toward a New York series. A slide to fourth could bring Atlanta or Indiana into Las Vegas’s path; fifth would cost the Aces first-round home-court advantage altogether. The opponent matters. So does the possibility of asking Wilson to save a season in a Game 3 away from home.
The Aces have control of this race today. Atlanta and Indiana need only one opening to make it uncomfortable. Meanwhile, Gray and Young must switch from sharing a World Cup floor with Stewart to potentially trying to eliminate her. That quick change of teammates into opponents will test far more than Las Vegas.
5. Berlin Might Give One Team an Edge and Another a Hangover
The World Cup ended on September 13. WNBA play returns four days later. Those dates leave little space between an international title chase and a regular-season sprint.
Stewart finished the tournament with a championship. Golden State’s Williams scored 20 points for France in the final. Clark, Gray, Young, Howard, Reese, and Bueckers also joined the U.S. team in Berlin. Meanwhile, some club teammates practiced, rested, and waited for them to come home. New York’s split was especially sharp: Stewart and several Liberty players traveled, while Ionescu and Jones stayed behind.
FIBA: USA vs. France World Cup final highlights
Tournament games can keep a player sharp. They can also leave her tired. No team will know which effect matters more until it faces a WNBA defense again.
The first telling possession may look ordinary. Does Clark spot Boston’s cut before the help arrives? Does Gray find Young at the right moment, or does a pass reach her half a beat late? Can Stewart and Ionescu regain the timing that turns a crowded possession into an open shot? Those details matter more than a broad claim about “rust.”
Williams has another transition to make. After trying to stop Stewart in the World Cup final, she returns to Golden State’s chase of Minnesota. A win here or there could change the Valkyries’ seed, just as one misplaced pass could cost Atlanta or Indiana fourth. Some of those costs may not become clear until the league breaks a tie.
6. A Summer Result Could Decide a September Home Game
Atlanta and Indiana share a record. So do New York, Washington, and Dallas. If any of those ties remain after four games, the standings will come down to results the teams have already played.
The WNBA first looks at the head-to-head record. If that does not break a tie, it compares winning percentage against teams that finish .500 or better. Point differential comes later. Those rules matter because the fourth seed hosts a possible deciding first-round game, and sixth, seventh, or eighth place changes the opponent.
A free throw that missed in June can loom over September. So can a rebound that nobody secured before a rival scored. The final week cannot replay those moments; it can only add new ones.
Multi-team ties make the bottom of the bracket especially volatile. Three clubs could finish with matching records and still walk away with very different assignments. New York might draw Las Vegas. Washington might have to face Golden State. Dallas might be sent against Minnesota. Change the order, and each scouting report changes with it.
Stewart could spend the final night waiting to learn whether she must face Wilson. Bueckers could discover that the Wings’ winning streak earned them Collier and the top-seeded Lynx. The standings may list those outcomes as numbers. The players will meet them on the floor.
The Last Four Games Will Choose a Road
On September 17, Atlanta hosts Connecticut with fourth place to protect. Las Vegas resumes its schedule against Seattle while trying to keep third. Elsewhere, Minnesota must defend its two-game lead, and Golden State must decide whether its winning streak can become a late charge for No. 1.
By September 24, every contender will know its first opponent. Some will also know they let a better path slip away.
The danger of this final week lies in how quickly the consequences arrive. Fourth, instead of fifth, means the Dream or Fever can open a series at home and bring a split series back for Game 3. Sixth instead of eighth may spare a team Minnesota in the opening round. A tiebreaker could settle either position after two clubs finish with the same number of wins.
Players will feel those margins in smaller moments first. Reese will fight for one more offensive rebound. Gray will hold the ball until a cutter clears. Clark will look for a pass that turns pressure into an easy basket. Williams will have to trade the intensity of a World Cup final for Golden State’s pursuit of first.
The eight playoff tickets are punched. The final four games will decide what each one is worth.
READ MORE: WNBA Regular Season Restart on September 17: Schedule and What to Watch
FAQs
How many WNBA teams have clinched playoff spots?
Eight teams have clinched. Their final four regular-season games will decide the seeds and first-round matchups.
Why does fourth place matter so much?
The fourth seed hosts Game 1 against the fifth seed. If they split the first two games, it will also host the deciding Game 3.
Who would Minnesota play if the standings stayed the same?
Minnesota would face eighth-place Dallas in the first round. Four games remain, so that matchup can still change.
What happens if teams finish with the same record?
The WNBA checks head-to-head results first. If those do not settle the tie, other results and point differential can decide the seed.
