Twice this year, the door to the world No. 1 ranking swung open for Elena Rybakina. Twice, she failed to walk through it.
Yuliia Starodubtseva knocked her out in the second round of Roland Garros. Elise Mertens then stopped her in the third round at Wimbledon. Both defeats came with Aryna Sabalenka vulnerable and Rybakina close enough to take the top spot.
That pattern caught Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova’s attention. Speaking to Tennis Bolshe after Wimbledon, the former world No. 11 questioned whether the ranking chase had started to weigh on Rybakina.
Nobody outside Rybakina’s team can know exactly what is happening in her mind. Still, Pavlyuchenkova is saying out loud what the rest of the tour may be wondering. Rybakina began 2026 by beating Sabalenka in the Australian Open final. Yet when another major offered a direct route to No. 1, her normally clean and aggressive tennis became difficult to find.
A Strong Season With One Costly Weakness
The numbers prove the sky is not falling on Rybakina’s season.
Official WTA records list her at 34 wins and 11 losses across 45 matches. She has won two titles, reached another final and climbed to a career high ranking of No. 2. A winning rate of roughly 76 percent reflects consistency across a demanding schedule.
Those 11 defeats also require context. Several came deep in tournaments against leading players rather than during an extended run of poor form. Rybakina reached the Indian Wells final, made the Miami semifinals and lifted the Stuttgart trophy. She has remained one of the tour’s most reliable performers outside the majors.
The problem is timing.
Rybakina entered Roland Garros with more match victories than any other woman on the tour. She then committed 71 unforced errors against Starodubtseva and lost 3-6, 6-1, 7-6.
Her usual control disappeared. The feet looked uncertain. Her contact point drifted. Forehands that normally rush opponents flew beyond the baseline or landed in the net. Instead of commanding rallies with the first clean strike, she repeatedly allowed Starodubtseva back into points.
Wimbledon appeared to offer the perfect response. Grass rewards Rybakina’s booming first serve, flat groundstrokes and ability to take the ball early. As a former champion, she also knew how to manage the surface.
Mertens refused to let her settle.
The Belgian absorbed Rybakina’s heavy baseline strikes, changed the speed of the ball and kept forcing her to play an extra shot. She edged the opening set tie break before pulling away in the second. A run of nine straight points broke the contest open, and Mertens completed a 7-6, 6-1 victory with an ace.
Pavlyuchenkova Says What Others Are Thinking
Pavlyuchenkova did not claim to know why Rybakina had struggled. She simply connected the defeats with the opportunity sitting in front of her.
The world No. 2 had arrived at two majors with a genuine chance to overtake Sabalenka. Neither campaign reached the second week.
“Maybe that also puts pressure on her,” Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova told Tennis Bolshe.
It was not an accusation. It was a theory from a veteran who understands how quickly expectations can change the feel of a match.
Pressure rarely announces itself. Sometimes it appears as a rushed forehand. On another point, it can be a forced return or an attempt to end a rally one shot too early. A player can look calm between points while still feeling the weight of an opportunity.
Of course, Pavlyuchenkova is still guessing.
Starodubtseva earned her victory in Paris by refusing to retreat after losing the opening set. Mertens deserved full credit for disrupting Rybakina’s rhythm in London. Neither result should be reduced to nerves alone.
Rybakina, however, admitted after Wimbledon that something in her tennis was not working. She dismissed any physical problem but could not offer a clear explanation for the sudden drop in her level. That uncertainty gives Pavlyuchenkova’s question more force.
The Ranking Chase Cannot Become the Match
Before facing Mertens, Rybakina leaned on a familiar sports phrase. She said she was taking the tournament one match at a time and trying to keep thoughts of No. 1 out of her mind.
The answer showed she understood the danger. Whether she managed to block out the stakes is another matter.
A ranking chase can change the emotional shape of a tournament. Each match stops feeling like an individual contest and starts becoming a step toward something larger. Routine service games feel heavier. Missed opportunities become harder to release. Opponents, meanwhile, can swing freely because the pressure sits almost entirely across the net.
Rybakina’s best tennis works in the opposite way. She plays with clarity. Her first serve produces easy points. Flat, early groundstrokes steal time from opponents. A fearless return game allows her to attack weak second serves before rallies can develop.
Those weapons were enough to beat Sabalenka in an Australian Open final. Rybakina has already shown that she can handle the pressure of playing for a major title.
The question is more specific now. Can she find that same killer instinct when the No. 1 ranking is also on the line?
The US Open Offers Another Chance
The race remains open. Sabalenka left Wimbledon with only a narrow advantage and more ranking points to defend during the North American hard court season. Rybakina should receive further opportunities to close the gap.
New York will present a difficult test. She has never advanced beyond the fourth round at the US Open, despite possessing a game that should translate well to its quick courts.
Another early exit would make Pavlyuchenkova’s theory harder to dismiss. A deep run would change the conversation just as quickly.
Rybakina does not need to prove that she belongs near No. 1. Her Australian Open title and consistent tour results have already settled that argument.
Now she must make the ranking chase feel smaller than the match in front of her.
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FAQs
Why is Elena Rybakina under pressure to reach world No. 1?
She entered Roland Garros and Wimbledon with a realistic chance to pass Aryna Sabalenka, but early losses ended both opportunities.
What is Elena Rybakina’s record in 2026?
Official WTA records list Rybakina at 34-11 with two titles and a career-high ranking of No. 2.
Who beat Elena Rybakina at the 2026 French Open?
Yuliia Starodubtseva beat her 3-6, 6-1, 7-6 in the second round after Rybakina made 71 unforced errors.
Who knocked Elena Rybakina out of Wimbledon 2026?
Elise Mertens defeated Rybakina 7-6, 6-1 in the third round, taking control after winning the opening-set tiebreak.
What is Elena Rybakina’s best US Open result?
Rybakina’s best US Open result is the fourth round, which she reached in 2025.
