Imagine you’re a GM with a 22-year-old superstar who just dropped 90 points. You have $9 million in cap space. Do you lock him up for eight years at $10 million per season, or take the safer route with a bridge deal, betting he’ll outplay it in a couple of years? This is the $40 million decision facing NHL front offices in 2026. The choices made could either elevate a franchise or send it into salary cap purgatory.
The 2026 Dilemma: A new era of RFA negotiations
NHL teams are playing a high-stakes game of Tetris with their salary caps, and the blocks are only getting heavier. With the cap projected to hit $104 million in 2026-27—an increase from years of stagnation—general managers will be facing pressure to balance short-term success with long-term roster flexibility. This increase is not speculative; it’s an agreed-upon figure between the NHL and NHLPA, and it fundamentally changes the leverage for players like Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson, and others who are set to become RFAs in 2026.
Long-term deals offer financial stability but tie up significant cap space for years. In contrast, bridge deals offer short-term security, but players risk their value fluctuating with the cap. The RFA decision is no longer just about securing a good contract—it’s about positioning for a future payoff.
Teams need the flexibility to maximize their roster potential, while players are angling for security in a volatile market. So, what’s the right strategy in 2026?
1. The Game-Changer: Why Teams Are Shifting Toward Bridge Deals
The Shift in Power
As the cap grows, RFAs are increasingly choosing bridge deals, betting on themselves in a fluctuating market. Once, taking a bridge deal was a risk. But in 2026, it’s becoming the default for young stars who know that their value is about to soar.
Key Data Point
According to PuckPedia projections, the average cap hit for RFAs in 2026 is expected to rise, but not nearly as much as previously expected. With more mid-tier players choosing bridge deals, teams are now hoping to find value in short-term investments. This trend became evident in the 2024 offseason, where 58% of RFAs opted for shorter contracts.
Cultural Legacy: The Confidence Gamble
Bridge deals are no longer viewed as just a stopgap. They’re now the ultimate test of self-confidence. Take Brady Tkachuk, who signed a seven-year, $57.5 million extension with Ottawa in 2021, solidifying his position as one of the league’s top young stars. While Tkachuk’s deal is not a bridge, it represents a key shift toward teams investing in their core pieces long term. For players who’ve proven themselves, bridge deals are no longer a compromise—they’re an opportunity to prove worth and set the stage for a payday when the cap rises.
2. Players’ Perspectives: The Pressure of Playing the Bridge Game
The Battle for Control
Restricted free agents have increasingly been forced into bridge deals, not just for financial reasons but because of the uncertain cap landscape. For players like Connor Bedard, who’s set to become an RFA in 2026, a bridge deal could be a way to prove his worth in a saturated market before commanding the long-term mega-deal that many expect.
A Data Point: The Market Effect
Cap data from the NHLPA confirms that the value of a player in their bridge contract can fluctuate drastically based on the cap ceiling. As the cap reaches $104 million in 2026, RFAs will need to demonstrate not just elite ability but sustained performance under pressure.
Cultural Shifts: The Middle Finger to the System
For players on bridge deals, there’s a clear message: I’m betting on my future, even if it means sacrificing long-term financial security. These players are taking a calculated risk with the knowledge that an explosive performance year could set them up for an eight-figure payday in their next contract.
3. Rewind: How We Got Here—The McDavid and MacKinnon Precedent
Setting the Stage: McDavid’s $100 Million Gamble
Looking back, NHL teams used to rely on long-term contracts to lock up elite talent. Connor McDavid’s $100 million deal with Edmonton was the gold standard, but now, GMs are reassessing. They’re wary of tying up too much cap space too early. MacKinnon’s gamble for a long-term deal after his bridge contract set the bar, but McDavid’s financial stability is no longer the norm for RFAs.
Data to Note
MacKinnon’s 2022 extension was a rare success story for long-term RFAs, but it also cemented the idea that franchises can no longer afford to throw out blanket offers to unproven players.
Legacy: The True Cost of Early Commitment
MacKinnon’s gamble on long-term stability paid off, but many RFAs are realizing that the cap restrictions could prevent such long-term deals from working out as expected. Players are seeing that they may need to bet on their performance year-to-year in order to get the money they’re worth.
4. The 2026 Class: The New Breed of RFAs
The New Wave
As 2026 nears, names like Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson, and Matt Savoie loom large in the RFA landscape. The stakes are high, and the cap is climbing. These players are already proving their worth, with Bedard putting up strong numbers in his early years. Their contracts will likely set the tone for the league.
Key Data Point
Bedard’s projected cap hit in 2026 is expected to be among the highest for any rookie in recent memory. The gamble on a bridge deal could pay off as the cap continues to climb, but only if he sustains his high level of play.
Cultural Shift: It’s About Future Potential, Not Just Present Performance
For stars like Bedard, the bridge deal isn’t about playing it safe—it’s about betting on the future. This cultural shift in player psychology will dominate the RFA strategy in 2026. Teams may have to face the reality of offering a much larger chunk of their cap space to players, or risk getting priced out of the market entirely.
5. The Math Behind the Decision: Why Teams Should Think Twice About Long-Term Deals
A Defining Moment: The Salary Cap Conundrum
With the projected salary cap rise, teams need to reconsider how they view long-term commitments. Giving out 8-year deals to unproven talent leaves teams with little flexibility.
A Crucial Data Point
According to a 2026 salary cap analysis, a team like the Chicago Blackhawks, projected to be competitive with Bedard in tow, could have as much as $18 million in cap space. That gives them the flexibility to lock up their young star without overcommitting.
The Cultural Legacy: Financial Flexibility Wins
Teams that have prioritized flexibility—like the Tampa Bay Lightning—have reaped the benefits in the past, and this strategy could be their secret weapon for the future.
6. Looking Ahead: What Does This Mean for NHL GMs?
A Brave New Era
The 2026 offseason promises to be a defining moment for general managers. With the cap expected to hit $104 million, RFAs like Bedard and Carlsson will shape the future of the NHL. What will teams prioritize? Stability or flexibility? A high-risk gamble on the future or a conservative approach to secure short-term cap room?
A Lingering Thought
The battle between bridge deals and long-term commitments will continue to define the NHL’s roster-building strategies. However, as we look ahead, one thing remains clear: the salary cap might be rising, but the real gamble is understanding how to play within it. Will GMs continue to roll the dice with short-term deals or lock in their stars for the long haul?
In the fast-evolving NHL, it’s not just about managing cap space—it’s about positioning for the future. As we approach the 2026 RFA class, the decisions made in boardrooms will echo for years to come.
Read More: 2026 NHL Teams in Cap Trouble: Who Has the Least Flexibility
FAQs
Q1: Why are bridge deals becoming more popular in the NHL?
- Bridge deals allow players to prove their worth while giving teams flexibility to evaluate talent, especially in the rising salary cap era.
Q2: How will the 2026 NHL salary cap affect RFA decisions?
- With the cap expected to rise to $104 million, RFAs in 2026 will have more leverage, leading to tougher decisions for GMs.
Q3: What impact does the NHL’s cap increase have on player contracts?
- The cap increase in 2026 provides teams and players with more financial room, making long-term contracts more feasible for emerging stars.
Q4: Who are the top RFAs in 2026?
- Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson, and Matt Savoie are among the standout RFAs to watch in 2026, as their contract decisions will shape the future of the NHL.
Q5: What’s the difference between a bridge deal and a long-term contract?
- A bridge deal offers short-term security for a player but gives teams flexibility, while a long-term contract locks in a player’s value but limits cap flexibility.
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