Raiders at No. 1 Mock begins with an old fear, not a new dream. The last time the Raiders sat here, holding the draft’s loudest card, they took JaMarcus Russell and turned one decision into a franchise scar that still shapes every quarterback conversation in silver and black. Younger fans know the story as trivia. Older ones know it as damage. That is why this April feels heavier than a standard rebuild checkpoint.
Las Vegas went 3-14 in 2025 and scored only 14.2 points per game, the worst mark in the league. The front office has already tried to stabilize the room around that collapse: Ashton Jeanty is coming off a strong rookie season, and this offseason the Raiders added Kirk Cousins and Tyler Linderbaum to make life easier for whoever comes next. Those moves matter because they frame the real question. This is not just about who the best player is. This is about whether the Raiders finally trust themselves enough to draft the quarterback who makes the past feel less permanent.
The decision is bigger than the board
A first pick can mean several things. Sometimes it patches a roster hole, sometimes it sells hope to a tired fan base, and sometimes it drags an entire franchise toward a new identity whether the building feels ready or not. The Raiders are in that third category.
Cousins gives them a veteran buffer, which matters more than people admit. He can start early, absorb the first turbulence and keep the huddle functional if the rookie needs a month, or two, or half a season. Linderbaum gives the next quarterback a cleaner pocket and a smarter center. Jeanty gives the offense a runner who already forced missed tackles and created yards after contact. The infrastructure is not finished, but it is finally being assembled with a young passer in mind.
ESPN’s reporting this week described Mendoza’s visit to Las Vegas as close to a formality and noted that the Raiders sent a large group that included John Spytek, Klint Kubiak and Andrew Janocko to Indiana’s pro day before bringing the quarterback in for a visit. That does not read like casual interest. It reads like alignment.
Fernando Mendoza’s rise also carries more texture than a one-line résumé can hold. He transferred from Cal to Indiana for the 2025 season and immediately changed the temperature of the program. AP named him its Player of the Year after he led the Hoosiers to their first Big Ten championship since 1967 and the No. 1 seed in the playoff. He then won the Heisman Trophy. The production alone would make him the obvious answer for a quarterback-needy team. The path makes him even more compelling. He changed schools, handled a bigger stage, and got sharper as the pressure increased. That matters for Las Vegas because this job is never only football. It is football plus memory, football plus theater, football plus a fan base that has spent two decades waiting for the next quarterback to be real.
That is why this pick should be filtered through three questions. Does the player justify passing on elite defensive talent? Can he fit the Cousins timeline instead of crashing into it? Can he survive the emotional burden of being the quarterback chosen by the same franchise that still hears Russell’s name whenever the first pick comes up? Ten names deserve a mention. The list of true answers is much shorter.
The field, narrowed to ten
10. Avieon Terrell
Terrell plays corner with the impatience of a blitzer. Clemson trusted him in press, and he rewarded that trust with eight forced fumbles over the past two seasons. He feels like the sort of defender Raider fans would adore by the second series of Week 1. Physical corners always look a little better in silver and black. Yet the first pick has to do more than set a tone. A corner can sharpen the defense. He cannot settle the franchise. Cousins would appreciate shorter fields and better coverage behind Crosby. The long-term problem would still be standing in the quarterback room waiting for a real answer.
9. Christen Miller
Miller is built for coaches who love ugly football. Georgia used him for the hard labor inside, and his 1,041 career defensive snaps tell the story better than his sack total does. He absorbs blocks, muddies run lanes and makes life easier for the linebackers behind him. Teams win with players like that. Teams rarely draft them first overall unless the rest of the roster already feels solved. The Raiders still need more force in the middle, but a defensive tackle this high would be the move of a team chasing sturdiness, not transformation. That is not enough with Cousins operating as a bridge and the future still unwritten.
8. KC Concepcion
Concepcion would make any offensive coordinator smile. After transferring to Texas A&M, he exploded to 15.1 yards per catch in 2025 and remained dangerous as a returner, too. His game gives quarterbacks free yards, and free yards keep offenses alive when the quarterback is still learning what he can and cannot attempt on Sundays. That is why Concepcion makes more sense as part of the Mendoza plan than as the pick itself. If Las Vegas wants to support a rookie quarterback behind Cousins, a separator like this belongs on the shopping list. He does not belong at No. 1.
7. Monroe Freeling
Freeling is the kind of prospect that tempts a front office into talking itself into patience. The physical tools are absurd: 34¾-inch arms, a 4.93 forty, and a 33.5-inch vertical at 315 pounds. That is premium tackle clay. The counterargument is just as simple. He has only 18 starts, which makes him a projection at the very top of the board. For a team using Cousins as a temporary stabilizer, taking Freeling first overall would mean drafting a development plan on top of another development plan. That is a luxury pick dressed up as discipline. Las Vegas cannot afford luxury here.
6. Francis Mauigoa
Mauigoa is the cleaner tackle case. He has been durable, steady and highly efficient, allowing only two sacks over the past two seasons and the lowest pressure rate allowed among FBS tackles in 2025 at 1.2 percent. That profile travels. He could start immediately, help Cousins immediately and still protect the rookie whenever the handoff arrives. That is the appeal. The problem is positional gravity. If the quarterback question still owns the room, a tackle at No. 1 feels like a hedge, and hedges are what franchises use when they do not fully trust the answer staring at them from the board.
5. Caleb Downs
Downs looks like certainty. He closes space fast, tackles cleanly and erases easy throws before the quarterback even feels comfortable making them. Coaches love players who communicate the defense for them, and by every report Downs gives off that kind of presence. Peter Schrager relayed this week that Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia called Downs the smartest player on whichever team drafts him. That is a remarkable endorsement. Safeties like this change games. They rarely change an entire franchise’s emotional direction. The Raiders need somebody who can own the huddle, not just the back end.
4. Arvell Reese
Reese is the disruptive wildcard. His move from linebacker to edge made him one of the most intriguing defenders in the class, and the leap in production followed. He rushed the passer only 17 times in 2024, then logged 97 pass-rush snaps in 2025 and piled up 6.5 sacks in his first eight games. Put that kind of acceleration next to Maxx Crosby, and the Raiders would start to look nasty again in a hurry. The Cousins angle even helps the argument; if the veteran can keep the offense afloat for a year, maybe the defense carries the team while the quarterback answer waits. That is the sensible case. It still falls short of the bolder one. Great pass rushes scare opponents. Great quarterbacks alter the architecture of a franchise.
3. David Bailey
Bailey is the best pure defender on the board for this exact spot. He tied the FBS lead with 14.5 sacks in 2025 and rushed with the kind of bad intentions that translate on first watch. His first step is sudden. The finish is violent. His production gives decision-makers an easy alibi if they want to avoid the psychological risk of taking another quarterback at No. 1. That is the trap. The Raiders can explain Bailey. They cannot justify passing on a quarterback they believe in simply because the ghost of Russell still haunts the room. A franchise does not heal by drafting around its fear.
2. Ty Simpson
Simpson is good enough to make this conversation dangerous. He won big at Alabama, threw 21 touchdowns against one interception in his first nine games, and added enough movement ability to tempt coaches into designing around him. The back half of the season cooled, though, with seven touchdowns and four interceptions over the final six games, and that split explains why he feels like a fascinating first-round quarterback rather than the obvious first pick. If Cousins were locked in as a two-year solution, Simpson’s case would grow stronger because the Raiders could ask him to sit and learn. That is not the climate here. Las Vegas needs the passer who can benefit from the bridge while still threatening to end the bridge ahead of schedule. Simpson feels more like a patient bet than an urgent answer.
1. Fernando Mendoza
The case for Mendoza gets stronger the closer you move from awards to moments. Start with the broad sweep: after transferring from Cal, he threw for 3,535 yards, completed 72 percent of his passes, accounted for 48 total touchdowns, and led Indiana to a 16-0 season and the school’s first national title. Then zoom in. In September, he shredded Illinois by completing 21 of 23 passes for 267 yards and five touchdowns, which is the kind of conference-opening statement that changes a season’s ceiling.
In October, he went to Eugene and threw for 215 yards with a critical fourth-quarter touchdown in a 30-20 win over Oregon. November, with Indiana’s unbeaten run wobbling at Penn State, he found Omar Cooper Jr. for the go-ahead toe-tap touchdown with 36 seconds left. On New Year’s Day, he threw three touchdowns in a 38-3 Rose Bowl demolition of Alabama.
Then came the title game against Miami, where he did not post his prettiest stat line but gave evaluators the play they will remember longest: a twisting 12-yard fourth-down touchdown run that looked less like quarterback style than quarterback will. Those are not spreadsheet details. Those are answer-the-noise moments.
Las Vegas needs a passer whose résumé holds stress, not just production. Mendoza has both. He fits the Cousins timeline. He fits the roster work the Raiders have already done. More than that, he fits the emotional burden of this pick because his rise suggests he does not flinch when the stage gets loud.
What the pick says about the franchise
If the Raiders turn in Mendoza’s card, they will be doing more than drafting a quarterback. They will be admitting what this era actually requires. This is not a “best player available” exercise in the abstract. This is a test of whether the organization finally understands that it cannot keep renting competence and calling it vision. Cousins helps because he keeps the room from becoming a panic chamber. He can take the first snaps if necessary. He can also become irrelevant quickly if Mendoza forces the issue in camp. That is the proper tension. A good bridge is useful. A real destination makes the bridge temporary by design.
The supporting cast is not perfect, but it is better than the Raiders usually hand a young quarterback. Jeanty just gave them 975 rushing yards, 556 yards after contact and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. Linderbaum changes the intelligence and reliability of the interior line. The front office has also kept looking at wideouts, which tells you they understand the next step: if Mendoza is the pick, the job does not end there. It shifts toward insulation. Another pass catcher on Day 2 would make sense. More help in the trenches would make sense. Building around the rookie instead of abandoning him to the old chaos would make even more sense.
That is why the answer here should stay clean. The Raiders do not need another clever detour. They do not need the safer defensive consolation prize. They need the quarterback who makes the room feel less haunted. Fernando Mendoza has the production, the late-game evidence, and the emotional makeup to justify that faith. Nineteen years after Russell, Las Vegas has another shot at the most dangerous pick in football. This time, the franchise should make it with conviction.
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2026 NFL Mock Draft: Boom or Bust First Round Edition
FAQs
Q1. Who do the Raiders take at No. 1 in this mock?
A1. Fernando Mendoza. The piece argues he is the cleanest quarterback answer for Las Vegas.
Q2. Why does Fernando Mendoza fit the Raiders?
A2. He gives them a real long-term quarterback plan and fits a roster already being built to support a rookie passer.
Q3. Did Fernando Mendoza play at Cal before Indiana?
A3. Yes. He transferred from Cal to Indiana before his Heisman-winning season.
Q4. Would Mendoza have to start right away in Las Vegas?
A4. Not necessarily. Kirk Cousins gives the Raiders a bridge, so Mendoza could open behind a veteran and take over when ready.
Q5. What play best captures Mendoza’s edge?
A5. His 12-yard fourth-down touchdown run in the title game says it fastest. That play turned pressure into proof.
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