NFL Teams That Could Surprise Everyone and Make the 2026 Playoffs are not built in public. Not in the splashy free agent presser. Not in the April jersey reveal. They get built in the quiet parts. In the second week of May when the building smells like tape adhesive and burnt coffee, when a pro scout is arguing for a veteran backup nobody tweets about, when a coordinator rewinds one ugly third down rep because it tells the truth.
It is late December 2025 as you read this. The 2025 season is still alive, still loud, still pretending it has one clean storyline. The 2026 season is next, and that is exactly why it matters. The league does not wait for closure. It moves. Coaches get hired. Quarterbacks get protected or exposed. Cap space turns into cap casualties. The teams that feel stuck right now are usually the ones closest to the edge of a wild card race next year.
So the question is simple and annoying. Which franchises are closer than they look to becoming a playoff problem in 2026.
The part of the year where the truth leaks out
Every December, we pretend surprises are random. They are not. They usually come from three places.
One: a quarterback plan that is at least coherent. It does not need to be perfect. It needs to be real.
Two: an efficiency baseline that says the team is not broken at the play level. When you are underwater in expected points added per play on both sides, you are not “one good draft” away. You are several hard months away.
Three: a division that can be dented. The NFL is not college football. You can go three and three in your division, steal one road game you are not supposed to win, and suddenly you are living in the seventh seed conversation.
That is the spine of this ranking. It is not a list of who is “most improved” in the abstract. It is a list of who can plausibly wake up in November 2026 and realize the league is taking them seriously.
The teams one month away from being unbearable
10. Tennessee Titans
The defining moment already happened, and it was not on a Sunday. Tennessee fired Brian Callahan on October 13, 2025, then named Mike McCoy the interim head coach. That is a franchise admitting the plan did not work fast enough, loud enough, or clean enough to justify another winter of patience.
The data is ugly, and it is not the kind of ugly you can pep talk away. In 2025, the Titans ranked 30th in offensive EPA per play at minus 0.16, and their defense sat 27th in EPA per play allowed at 0.08. That is a team losing snaps, not just games.
The cultural note is the part people forget. Tennessee still lives on thin margins, and that identity does not vanish because the staff changes. The Titans have been built for close games, field position, and a certain kind of stubborn. That stubborn can become an advantage again if the next coach gives them a real quarterback runway and the roster stops bleeding explosive plays.
Path to the playoffs: hit on the head coach hire, stabilize quarterback, and drag the defense back toward the middle so the offense does not have to be heroic.
9. Carolina Panthers
Carolina’s bet is that Dave Canales can do the hard thing twice: build an offense that makes a young quarterback play fast without playing frantic. He is still the head coach, which matters, because the first ingredient in a surprise season is not genius. It is not changing directions every ten months.
The numbers tell you where the floor is. In 2025, the Panthers ranked 22nd in offensive EPA per play at minus 0.02 and 26th in defensive EPA per play allowed at 0.07. That is not “one piece away.” That is “stop giving away the game in the first quarter.”
The cultural note is that Carolina still wants to be a violent, serious team again. Not performative violent. Not “we hit” violent. Keep Pounding violent, the kind that makes a division game feel like a bruise for both sides. That is an identity you can build around if the quarterback becomes functional and the defense stops living on third and forever.
Path to the playoffs: win the first month of the season, steal two division games early, and make Bryce Young live in the quick game so the pass rush cannot tee off.
8. Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas chose clarity, which is rare for them. They hired Pete Carroll as head coach, then traded for Geno Smith. That is not a rebuild. That is a franchise saying it is tired of being a punchline and wants an adult in the building.
Now the inconvenient part. The Raiders were 32nd in offensive EPA per play at minus 0.20 in 2025. Last. Dead last. That is the kind of stat that follows you into the offseason like a bad smell on your clothes. The defense was better, sitting 22nd in EPA per play allowed at 0.04, which at least gives Carroll something to grip.
Raider Nation does not do subtle. It never has. It is a fan base that treats hope like a dare. The cultural note here is that the building runs hotter when the team plays with an edge, when Maxx Crosby is chasing a quarterback like the snap offended him, when Allegiant feels like it is waiting for a reason to turn mean.
Path to the playoffs: Geno Smith gives them league average quarterback play, Carroll stabilizes the weekly operation, and the defense climbs into the top half so the offense does not have to be pretty.
7. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are always one good month away from changing the conversation. Then they spend two months reminding you why you stopped trusting them. Raheem Morris has the head coach title now, and that matters because Atlanta has been living in a loop for years: talent, expectations, weird Sunday, repeat.
The data point explains the frustration. In 2025, the Falcons ranked 23rd in offensive EPA per play at minus 0.02. That is not catastrophic. It is just toothless. The defense ranked 19th in EPA per play allowed at 0.01, which is basically the definition of “fine.”
The cultural note is that Atlanta has a fan base that recognizes competence the way you recognize a song you forgot you loved. You hear it and you sit up. The stadium can get loud fast when the team has an actual plan. The franchise does not need to become something new. It needs to stop being allergic to finishing drives.
Path to the playoffs: turn red zone trips into touchdowns, split the NFC South, and let the defense keep games from turning into track meets.
6. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is not mysterious anymore. Jonathan Gannon is still the head coach, and the Cardinals are building an identity that looks like effort, speed, and a defense that wants to ruin your rhythm even when it cannot dominate you.
The numbers say they are hanging around the edge of competence. In 2025, the Cardinals ranked 21st in offensive EPA per play at minus 0.02 and 23rd in defensive EPA per play allowed at 0.05. That is not playoff quality. It is not hopeless either.
The cultural note is that Arizona has been living with a weird kind of invisibility, even when it has real players. That can flip quickly. A young team that learns how to close games becomes annoying to everyone else, especially in a division where the name brands get most of the oxygen.
Path to the playoffs: win the games you are supposed to win at home, steal one early division upset, and push both offense and defense into the top sixteen by the time the weather changes.
5. Washington Commanders
Washington feels like two different teams depending on which side of the ball you watch. Dan Quinn is the head coach, and the culture shift has been real enough to register. But the season also got punched in the mouth when Jayden Daniels was shut down with an elbow injury, a move that underscored the franchise’s belief that the future matters more than one more meaningless Sunday in December.
Here is the brutal data. The Commanders were 17th in offensive EPA per play at 0.00 in 2025, which is basically a shrug. The defense was 30th in EPA per play allowed at 0.13, which is not a shrug. That is a siren.
The cultural note is that Washington has been starving for a team that looks modern. Not just in scheme. In vibe and belief. In the way a quarterback carries a huddle. When Daniels is healthy, the franchise has a center of gravity it has not had in years, and the fan base knows the difference between marketing and actual hope.
Path to the playoffs: get Daniels to camp healthy, rebuild the defense into something merely average, and turn close games into wins instead of lessons.
4. New England Patriots
This is the part where the league rolls its eyes and then gets uncomfortable. The Patriots hired Mike Vrabel as head coach, and the staff list reads like a reminder that New England does not stay down forever unless it chooses to.
The data says they are already operating like a serious team in 2025. New England ranked 6th in offensive EPA per play at 0.10 and 12th in defensive EPA per play allowed at minus 0.03. That is a top tier efficiency profile hiding inside a season that people still talk about like a mess.
The cultural note is obvious, but it still matters. Foxborough does not romanticize rebuilding. It treats it like wasted time. The fan base is spoiled, yes, but it is also trained. It knows what disciplined football looks like, and it gets restless when the product stops matching the standard. Vrabel does not have to invent a culture. He just has to restore the one the building remembers.
Path to the playoffs: keep the defense in the top half, stay top ten in offensive efficiency, and let the division cannibalize itself.
3. Denver Broncos
Denver has a clear picture now: Sean Payton, a young quarterback in Bo Nix, and a defense that can carry weeks when the offense is still learning how to live in the NFL. That is a real formula, not a motivational poster.
The numbers back it up. In 2025, the Broncos were 11th in offensive EPA per play at 0.05 and 8th in defensive EPA per play allowed at minus 0.07. That is a playoff level defense and a competent offense, which is usually enough to get you into the conversation even if you are not anyone’s preseason darling.
The cultural note is that Denver gets impatient, and it should. The city has seen what real quarterback play feels like, what real January football feels like, and it does not want to be lectured about “process.” If Payton and Nix can keep the offense on schedule, that defense will give them a chance to steal ugly games in November.
Path to the playoffs: stay elite on defense, protect the quarterback with a smarter run pass balance, and go three and three in the division.
2. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are the kind of team that makes the analytics people nod and the old scouts argue. They can look brilliant for ten snaps, then chaotic for ten. Shane Steichen is still the head coach, and Anthony Richardson is still the bet. That continuity matters more than fans want to admit.
The data says Indianapolis is closer than the weekly mood swings suggest. In 2025, the Colts ranked 5th in offensive EPA per play at 0.10 and 11th in defensive EPA per play allowed at minus 0.03. That is not a cute story. That is a team already playing playoff caliber football at the play level.
The cultural note is that Indianapolis still carries itself like a quarterback franchise, even after years of renting the position. Richardson gives them something different: a physical stress test for defenses. When he is healthy and decisive, the entire field tilts. The fan base feels it. Opponents feel it. You cannot fake that kind of threat.
Path to the playoffs: keep Richardson upright, turn explosive plays into consistent drives, and win the AFC South games that always seem to come down to one foolish mistake.
1. Chicago Bears
Chicago finally made the kind of hire that tells you what the organization believes. Ben Johnson is the head coach now. Caleb Williams is the quarterback. That is not subtle. That is the franchise putting the offense at the center of the project and daring the rest of the NFC North to deal with it.
The numbers say the Bears already have a base. In 2025, Chicago ranked 9th in offensive EPA per play at 0.06 and 13th in defensive EPA per play allowed at minus 0.02. That is a team living in the respectable zone on both sides, which is usually the last stop before “surprise playoff team” becomes “why did we underestimate them.”
The cultural note is the part you can hear. Soldier Field does not politely appreciate quarterback play. It demands it. The city has been waiting its entire football life for a season where the offense is not an apology. When the Bears have a quarterback, the entire league feels bigger in Chicago, and the division games turn personal fast.
Path to the playoffs: let Johnson modernize the weekly plan, let Williams cut down the wasted downs, and survive the division by splitting at home and stealing one cold road game late.
The part nobody admits out loud
Here is what always makes this exercise uncomfortable. Surprises are not really surprises. They are teams that stop tripping over themselves for six straight weeks.
That is why the NFL middle class matters more than the top five. The elites mostly just need health. The rest need a month where the quarterback does not give the ball away, where the right tackle survives, where the defensive coordinator gets two third down calls exactly right, where a rookie stops looking like a rookie. Then the standings change. Fast.
The 2025 efficiency table already hints at which teams are living closer to the line than the record might suggest. Chicago, Indianapolis, Denver, New England: those profiles look like real football teams, not offseason fantasies.
The darker truth is that the bottom of this list is not hopeless either. Las Vegas has a real coach and a real quarterback plan now. Carolina has continuity and a young quarterback who still has time to become functional. Tennessee has to pick a direction, but the league is full of franchises that look dead right before they find the one staff that fits.
NFL Teams That Could Surprise Everyone and Make the 2026 Playoffs will not be the teams winning February headlines. They will be the teams that get to October and realize they have a defense that travels, an offense that can stay on schedule, and a locker room that does not flinch when the first bad week hits.
The league does not reward vibes. It rewards teams that can play clean football for a month. So here is the real question to sit with: which of these franchises is one disciplined stretch away from changing its entire story, and which one is about to learn, again, that hope is not a scheme.
Read more: https://sportsorca.com/nfl/nfl-power-rankings-2026-season-built-for-january/
FAQs
Q1: Which NFL teams could surprise and make the 2026 playoffs?
A: This story ranks ten teams by quarterback plan, EPA per play baseline, and a division path that can be dented. pasted
Q2: Why does EPA per play matter for playoff sleepers?
A: It shows whether a team wins snaps, not just games. If you lose play to play on both sides, a playoff jump rarely holds. pasted
Q3: Why are the Bears ranked No. 1 in this list?
A: The Bears have Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, plus a strong 2025 EPA profile on offense and defense. pasted
Q4: Can the Raiders really contend after trading for Geno Smith?
A: They can become annoying fast if the offense reaches league average and the defense climbs into the top half. That is the path outlined here. pasted
Q5: What is the simplest “path to the playoffs” for these teams?
A: Win your home games, split the division when you can, and play clean football for a month. That is when the standings flip.
I’m a sports and pop culture junkie who loves the buzz of a big match and the comfort of a great story on screen. When I’m not chasing highlights and hot takes, I’m planning the next trip, hunting for underrated films or debating the best clutch moments with anyone who will listen.
