The league just reset after a wild summer. Luka is a Laker. KD landed in Houston. Orlando got tougher and louder. Rookies think they are ready on day one. And last year’s award winners set a hard bar for everyone chasing them. This is a fan view with reporter care. The NBA Summer Preview 2025-26 awards prediction is no safe takes. Only clear calls, backed by what happened and what’s coming.
MVP + Coach of the Year
MVP pick: Nikola Jokic with Luka Doncic right on his shoulder. ESPN’s panel opened with Jokic over Luka and Shai. The gap came from trust and team rhythm after Denver’s playoff duel with OKC. Luka has the narrative after the blockbuster move and a lighter frame in L.A., but voters will still weigh wins first.
Last year Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took both MVP and Finals MVP. That makes repeat love harder. Denver’s machine and Jokic’s day-to-day control give him an early edge. If the Lakers surge to a top-two seed behind Luka, the race flips.
Coach of the Year: Jamahl Mosley, Magic. Orlando added real guard play and spacing around Paolo. National chatter already has Mosley as a favorite if the East opens up and Orlando jumps past 50 wins. The path is there.
“It’s just like a dream come true.” — Luka Dončić on joining the Lakers.
Rookie of the Year + Most Improved Player
ROY: Cooper Flagg, Mavericks. The No. 1 pick walks into minutes and touches. Dallas needs his two-way motor and feel right away. ESPN’s forecast had Flagg winning by a wide margin over Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe. He checks the talent plus opportunity box better than anyone.
MIP: Amen Thompson, Rockets. With Kevin Durant spacing the floor and bending defenses, Amen’s driving, cutting, and playmaking pop. If the jumper ticks up, his box score jumps with it. Houston’s seven-team swing for KD changed their ceiling and the spotlight that sits on Amen every night.
Watch list: Andrew Nembhard if Indy reruns last year’s late-season surge with more on-ball duty. Ausar Thompson if Detroit’s offense finally breathes. ESPN’s panel put both right behind Amen.
Defensive Player, Sixth Man, Clutch
DPOY: Victor Wembanyama. He was tracking for it last season before the 65-game rule tripped him up. Now he returns as the clear favorite in panels and odds. If he crosses the games line, it’s his award to lose. Last year’s winner was Evan Mobley, and he sits as runner-up in most early boards.
Sixth Man: Alex Caruso. Defense first off the bench on a contender still sells. The panel leaned Caruso over Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, while noting eligibility wrinkles if guys start too often. OKC will protect his minutes for May and June, but the impact is loud enough from October to April.
Clutch: Jalen Brunson. The award is noisy year to year, but Brunson owns the moment and already has the hardware from last season. New York leans late. He delivers late. That pattern usually repeats.
