MLB teams that could disappoint in 2026 sit in a familiar place right now: the space between what happened and what should have happened. The scoreboard still shows the wins. However, the run differential still whispers. MLB.com’s expanded standings, last updated December 5, 2025, lay the trap in plain numbers: actual record beside expected record, runs scored beside runs allowed, and that ruthless column for record against teams above .500.
In that moment, you can feel how quickly a season can flip. Toronto won 94 games, reached the World Series, and still finished with an expected record of 88 and 74 on MLB.com. Cleveland won the AL Central at 88 and 74 while the same page lists a negative run differential and an expected record of 80 and 82. Suddenly, the question turns sharp. Which clubs built something sturdy in 2025, and which ones rode timing, close games, and thin margins that rarely repeat.
Hours later, you remember the Dodgers finished the job in Game 7 against the Blue Jays, a 5 to 4 win in 11 innings, per MLB.com’s World Series coverage from early November 2025. Yet still, October glory does not protect you from April reality. Regression does not ask permission.
The numbers that turn “good” into “fragile”
At the time, fans talk in memories. A walk off in July. A bullpen escape in August. A pennant race that felt like oxygen.
However, front offices talk in expected standings, run differential, and record against teams above .500. Those stats do not predict a season on their own. Yet still, they show where the floor hides, and they often explain why a team that “felt” like a contender suddenly plays like a middle tier club.
Consequently, this regression board uses three filters that travel from one season to the next. First, teams that outpaced their expected record by five wins or more on MLB.com invite a pullback. Second, teams with ugly run differentials, especially negative ones, rarely sustain a winning record without elite repeatable traits. Third, teams that struggled against clubs above .500 often face a harsher sequel once the schedule tightens and the division turns.
Despite the pressure, none of this guarantees collapse. It simply highlights risk. Before long, the league turns those risks into standings, and nobody cares how loud the old highlights sounded.
Ten regression stories that could shape 2026
A list can drown in numbers. This one needs moments.
The entries below do not rank “best rosters.” They rank vulnerability. Each team posted a 2025 profile on MLB.com’s expanded standings that suggests a tougher year could arrive in 2026, even without disaster. Yet still, every section also names the human reason the disappointment would sting.
10. Athletics
Suddenly, a 76 win season can feel like traction. A few series wins land. The park wakes up. The rebuild stops sounding like a speech.
However, MLB.com shows the Athletics scored 733 and allowed 817, a minus 84 run differential, while still finishing 76 and 86. The same page lists an expected record of 73 and 89, which means the club already lived a little above its underlying line. Their record against teams above .500 sat at 45 and 58, a reminder that most “real” opponents handled them.
Yet still, the cultural legacy here centers on belief. Fans want a clear direction, not just a few fun nights. If 2026 drops the win total back into the low 70s, it will not feel like a small step. It will feel like the sport pulling the rug just as hope started to show its face.
9. St. Louis Cardinals
At the time, Cardinals baseball carries a quiet arrogance. The city expects competence. The fanbase expects October to at least stay in view.
However, the 2025 profile looks like a fragile middle. MLB.com lists St. Louis at 78 and 84 with an expected record of 74 and 88. The run differential sat at minus 65, with 689 runs scored and 754 allowed. Their record against teams above .500 reached 45 and 56, which reads like a club that fought but rarely controlled.
Consequently, the disappointment in 2026 would not need a collapse. It would only need a repeat. Another season hovering below .500 would hit harder because St. Louis does not sell “bridge years” well. Years passed when the Cardinals could patch holes with one move. That confidence feels thinner now, and fans can sense it.
8. Washington Nationals
In that moment, young talent changes the air. A prospect gets hot for two weeks and suddenly every game feels like it matters.
However, MLB.com paints a blunt picture of how far Washington still needs to climb. The Nationals finished 66 and 96 while scoring 687 and allowing 899, a minus 212 crater. The expected record sat at 61 and 101, so even the 66 wins leaned on small breaks. Their record against teams above .500, 34 and 55, shows how often real contenders pushed them around.
Yet still, the cultural tension comes from the names fans attach to the next era. If the expected progress of CJ Abrams or James Wood stalls, even briefly, the losses will feel louder than the math. Before long, a rebuild can turn into a waiting room, and nobody likes living there.
7. Baltimore Orioles
Hours later, a fanbase can accept a down year if it sees a clean path forward. Baltimore has lived that cycle long enough to recognize the difference between a dip and a drift.
However, the Orioles’ 2025 numbers suggest more damage than the record shows. MLB.com lists Baltimore at 75 and 87, with 677 runs scored and 788 allowed for a minus 111 differential. The expected record sat at 70 and 92, so the club outperformed its underlying line by five wins. Their record against teams above .500, 43 and 58, also points toward a tough ceiling.
Consequently, 2026 disappointment would not come from falling off a peak. It would come from failing to climb at all. The fanbase wants a return to contention, not another year where the division feels like a locked door. Yet still, the sport punishes thin pitching and uneven offense without mercy.
6. Miami Marlins
Suddenly, 79 wins can feel like progress in Miami. The record sits close enough to .500 to make the “next step” pitch sound plausible.
However, MLB.com shows why that pitch carries risk. The Marlins finished 79 and 83 while scoring 709 and allowing 798, a minus 89 run differential. The expected record sat at 72 and 90, a seven win gap that screams fragile timing. Their record against teams above .500 reached 43 and 47, which looks respectable until you notice how often the run differential still tilted hard against them.
Yet still, the cultural legacy in Miami revolves around relevance. Fans do not demand 100 wins. They do demand a reason to care past the trade deadline. If 2026 strips away the close game luck and drops them into the low 70s, the disappointment will feel like a door closing, not a number changing.
5. Kansas City Royals
At the time, Kansas City sells patience with a straight face. The organization points to a core. The city points to the kids.
However, the 2025 split against quality opponents hints at why regression can feel cruel. MLB.com lists the Royals at 82 and 80 with an expected record of 83 and 79, so the overall luck gap looks small. Yet still, Kansas City went 37 and 51 against teams above .500, which means they played 88 games against winning clubs and lost most of them. That detail matters because contenders do not build October habits by beating only the soft parts of the schedule.
Consequently, expectations will rise anyway, largely because Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino give the lineup real identity. If 2026 brings the same struggle against winning teams, the disappointment will land fast, especially once the division stops giving away easy weeks.
4. Houston Astros
Years passed when Houston made dominance feel routine. That history still hangs over every evaluation of this team.
However, MLB.com’s expected standings show a profile built on thinner margins than the brand suggests. The Astros finished 87 and 75 with 686 runs scored and 665 allowed, a modest plus 21 differential. The expected record sat at 83 and 79, a four win gap that often comes from close game edges that do not repeat cleanly. Their record against teams above .500, 43 and 43, reads like a club that stayed competitive but did not separate.
Yet still, Houston’s standard makes the sequel harsh. Fans will not accept a quiet follow up. If the Astros fall from 87 wins into the low 80s, the league will call it normal variance. The city will call it failure. Suddenly, that is how eras fade in baseball, not with fireworks, but with a slow tightening of margins.
3. Los Angeles Angels
In that moment, a 72 win season can feel like life. For the Angels, it can also feel like the sport playing a joke.
However, MLB.com shows one of the loudest regression alarms on the board. The Angels finished 72 and 90 while scoring 673 and allowing 837, a brutal minus 164 run differential. Yet still, the expected record sat at 65 and 97, which means they outpaced their underlying performance by seven wins. Their record against teams above .500 reached 44 and 60, another sign that quality opponents exposed them regularly.
Consequently, the cultural sting here comes from exhaustion. Angels fans know what bad looks like. They also know what false hope looks like. If 2026 takes those seven “extra” wins back, the disappointment will not feel like regression. It will feel like the franchise replaying the same season with different dates. Baseball Reference and similar expected record models rarely forgive run differentials like this.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
Hours later, Toronto’s 2025 season still feels like a movie. The Blue Jays won 94 games and carried that run all the way to a Game 7 World Series loss to the Dodgers, per MLB.com’s Game 7 coverage from early November 2025. The city tasted the edge of a title and had to swallow the silence.
However, the 2025 regular season math suggests the path carried more thin moments than the highlight reel admits. MLB.com lists Toronto with 798 runs scored and 721 allowed for a plus 77 differential, strong but not dominant for a 94 win club. The expected record sat at 88 and 74. That is a six win gap in the win column, and an overall twelve game swing between actual and expected records.
Yet still, this is exactly where disappointment grows teeth. Fans will not judge 2026 like a normal season. They will judge it like a sequel to a World Series run. If the Blue Jays win 88 and snag a Wild Card, analysts may call it fine. Toronto will call it a step backward, because October rewires expectations in a city.
1. Cleveland Guardians
Finally, we land on the team whose numbers read like a dare.
However, Cleveland’s 2025 profile on MLB.com sets off every regression sensor at once. The Guardians won the AL Central at 88 and 74 while scoring 643 and allowing 649, a minus 6 run differential. The expected record sat at 80 and 82, an eight win gap that towers over almost every other contender. Their record against teams above .500, 42 and 47, shows they did not bully strong clubs. They survived them.
Consequently, 2026 could punish Cleveland without changing a single thing about effort. A few more one run games can flip. A bullpen can lose a touch. A lineup can strand two more runners per week. Suddenly, an 88 win division crown turns into an 81 win fight, and the outside world calls it regression like it feels harmless.
Yet still, Guardians culture will not treat it as harmless. Fans remember every tight win because the team asked them to live in tension all season. If 2026 removes even a slice of that late game magic, the disappointment will not arrive as a dramatic collapse. It will arrive as a slow realization that the 2025 version lived on the thinnest edge in the league.
The 2026 race that will expose the truth
Despite the pressure, regression does not always mean decline in talent. It often means the sport stops gifting the same breaks. A team can keep its stars and still lose six more games simply because the coin flips land differently.
However, MLB teams that could disappoint in 2026 share a common risk: they cannot afford normal variance. Some need their bullpen to stay perfect in leverage. Others need their timing with runners in scoring position to hold. A few need the schedule to cooperate again.
Yet still, smart organizations plan for the snap back. They build bullpen depth. They chase a fourth starter who can take the ball every fifth day. They treat expected standings as a warning, not a verdict. Before long, that preparation becomes the only thing separating a stable 86 win season from an embarrassing 78.
MLB teams that could disappoint in 2026 will not all disappoint. The league never plays that clean. However, this list marks where the math already points. When the first month of 2026 ends and the close games start to flip, which of these clubs will prove it built something real, and which will learn that 2025 borrowed too much from luck to pay it back twice.
Read Also: Rookie of the Year Predictions 2026 AL ROY Candidates
FAQ
Q1: Which MLB teams could disappoint in 2026?
These ten teams show the biggest warning signs from expected records, run differential, and performance versus winning teams.
Q2: What does an “expected record” mean in MLB?
It estimates wins from runs scored and runs allowed. It often shows when a team’s win total ran ahead of its underlying play.
Q3: Does regression mean a team will be bad?
No. It often means close games flip, timing cools off, and a few wins disappear even if the roster stays strong.
Q4: Why does record against teams above .500 matter?
It’s a quick test against playoff-level opponents. If that split stays weak, the schedule usually exposes it again.
Q5: Can a team avoid regression in 2026?
Yes. Better depth, steadier starting pitching, and a deeper bullpen can turn last year’s thin margins into repeatable wins.
I bounce between stadium seats and window seats, chasing games and new places. Sports fuel my heart, travel clears my head, and every trip ends with a story worth sharing.
