Aggressive baserunning in the Mariners-Dodgers series finale will begin long before anyone breaks for second. The dirt around first base will become contested ground. A runner will widen his lead. Roki Sasaki will glance toward him. Dalton Rushing will rise slightly behind the plate, ready to receive and fire.
Each movement will ask a question.
Can the Mariners make Sasaki rush? Will Los Angeles surrender the extra base to protect the strike zone? How much pressure can a runner create without attempting a steal?
The first two games offered little middle ground. Seattle won Tuesday’s opener 7–6 by launching five home runs. Los Angeles answered Wednesday behind Eric Lauer, who held the Mariners to one hit and one walk across six scoreless innings. Andy Pages added three hits, including a homer and an RBI double, in the Dodgers’ 4–2 victory.
Now the series reaches its deciding game.
Thursday’s finale hinges on a simple question: Which team can manufacture a run before the bats wake up?
Seattle’s slowest runner may be its sharpest weapon
Josh Naylor’s 21 stolen bases are not a typo.
Nor do they represent a sudden transformation into one of baseball’s fastest players. Statcast has measured Naylor’s sprint speed at roughly 24.5 feet per second, placing him near the bottom of the league. He does not win races through acceleration. Timing gives him the edge.
That distinction matters.
Fast runners can survive imperfect jumps. Naylor cannot. Instead, he studies a pitcher’s rhythm and waits for attention to shift toward home plate. Then he commits before raw speed becomes the deciding factor.
During a July 9 game in Miami, that preparation created an entire run. After reaching first, Naylor stole second and then took third. The throw sailed away. He kept going and scored. One baserunner forced three separate defensive actions, and the final mistake put a run on the board.
Two weeks later, another sequence captured Seattle’s preferred version of pressure. Naylor stole his 20th base against Cincinnati. The next day, he added No. 21 and scored from second on a Cal Raleigh single. Steal the base. Challenge the throw. Make the defense complete every detail.
His success creates a different problem for the Dodgers. They cannot judge Seattle’s intentions by body type or conventional speed. Every runner requires attention.
That group includes Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodríguez. Arozarena entered the final week of July with 19 steals. Rodríguez possesses the acceleration to turn a routine outfield pickup into a rushed throw. Neither player needs to run constantly. The threat alone can alter a pitch before either man leaves first.
From the bag, Arozarena can stretch his lead, draw a disengagement and shorten the pitcher’s focus. Rodríguez can force an outfielder to charge harder than usual. Even a false start may pull a middle infielder toward second.
None of that appears in the stolen-base column. The defense feels it anyway.
Sasaki’s clock becomes part of Seattle’s attack
For Seattle, Roki Sasaki poses a much tougher puzzle than Wednesday’s score alone suggests.
The Dodgers right-hander enters the finale at 4–5 with a 4.71 ERA and 94 strikeouts. His previous start showed the ceiling. Against the Mets, Sasaki allowed one run across seven innings and struck out nine. He also retired the final nine batters he faced.
Preventing him from finding that rhythm must become the Mariners’ first priority.
A clean opening inning would let Sasaki settle into his delivery. He could trust his power arsenal and attack the plate. Traffic changes everything. Once a runner reaches, Sasaki must split his attention among the hitter, the lead and the game’s disengagement rules.
That tension creates opportunity.
One extended hold can disturb a pitcher’s tempo. Two quick throws to first can reveal impatience. With every check, a runner may steal another half-step and make the next pitch feel crowded.
Taking off at the first opening would miss the larger point. The smarter move may involve waiting until Sasaki speeds up his delivery or loses conviction in a breaking ball. Baserunning pressure works best when it improves the hitter’s chances.
Across the diamond, Bryan Woo faces a different version of the same test.
Woo enters with a 7–7 record, 4.37 ERA and 114 strikeouts. His first job, though, is survival. Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and the heart of the Dodgers’ order can inflict damage in a hurry.
Los Angeles rarely needs to manufacture offense. Through 101 games, the Dodgers had scored 524 runs with a .773 team OPS. Their 37 stolen bases ranked near the bottom of the majors. Patience and power usually supplied enough offense.
A deciding game can change that calculation.
One unexpected steal could force Woo into the stretch during a critical plate appearance. An aggressive first-to-third turn might erase the double play. Because Los Angeles runs so rarely, the attempt may become harder to anticipate.
The catcher changes the geometry
Behind the plate, Dalton Rushing will carry a significant share of the responsibility.
Will Smith will not control Seattle’s running game Thursday. Neck inflammation sent him to the 60-day injured list, leaving Rushing with the bulk of the work at catcher.
Rushing brings a quick release.
His average pop time to second sits at 1.92 seconds. Cal Raleigh’s mark for Seattle stands at 1.99. Seven hundredths of a second sounds trivial. On a close play, it can separate a clean steal from a tag on the runner’s fingertips.
Still, pop time never belongs to the catcher alone.
Sasaki must give Rushing a chance. A slow delivery can erase the catcher’s exchange advantage before the ball reaches the plate. Poor location may force Rushing to reach across his body. Breaking balls in the dirt invite runners to move even when no steal sign arrives.
Rather than testing only Rushing’s arm, the Mariners should pressure the entire battery.
That may mean forcing multiple throws to first. A runner could bluff from second when a pitch bounces. Another option involves taking a bold secondary lead and daring the Dodgers to attempt a back-pick.
Chaos alone serves no purpose. What Seattle wants is hesitation. Once the defense begins thinking about the runner, routine baseball becomes less routine.
The decisive play may never count as a steal
You might not find the game’s most important play in the stolen-base column.
Picture Arozarena standing on first with one out. A single drops in front of a Dodgers outfielder. The defender charges toward the ball, but Arozarena never slows at second. His commitment forces a rushed throw toward third and allows the batter to advance behind him.
One hit has created two runners in scoring position.
Another possibility begins with less drama. Naylor takes off on contact and breaks up a potential double play. Rodríguez advances when a pitch skips only a few feet from the catcher. Elsewhere, a runner reads an outfielder’s momentum and tags from second on a deep fly.
Those decisions often separate aggressive teams from reckless ones.
Running simply because the matchup invites it would erase the advantage. Outs carry too much value, especially against a Dodgers club that can change the score with one swing. Naylor and Arozarena have succeeded often, but both have also been caught. Pressure disappears when the runner walks back toward the dugout.
Wednesday’s loss showed the cost of waiting too long. Lauer smothered the lineup through six innings, and the Mariners did not score until the eighth. Doubles from Dominic Canzone and Naylor created another run in the ninth. By then, Los Angeles had built enough distance.
Thursday requires earlier discomfort.
A leadoff walk must feel dangerous. Any two-out single should carry the possibility of becoming a runner on second. Every Dodgers infielder should wonder whether the next throw will go home, second or first.
Inside that uncertainty lives the game within the game.
One fearless read could settle the series
The Mariners-Dodgers baserunning battle will not reward whichever club runs most often. It will reward the team that reads the moment correctly.
To create that moment, the Mariners must force Sasaki to reveal his habits. Naylor can watch his feet. Arozarena can test his holds. Rodríguez can push the defense on balls into the outfield gaps.
Calm execution offers Los Angeles its best response. Rushing needs clean exchanges. Sasaki cannot allow a runner to dictate his pace. Meanwhile, the middle infielders must cover the bag without opening unnecessary holes for Seattle’s hitters.
Woo faces the more subtle threat. The Dodgers will not advertise their intentions, which makes every movement more dangerous. Ohtani does not need to steal to command attention. Freeman can take an extra base when an outfielder turns the wrong shoulder. Pages enters the finale after punishing Seattle with three hits Wednesday.
As the innings tighten, the margins will shrink.
A runner will lean toward second. The pitcher will pause. Somewhere in the dugout, a coach will spot a pattern that did not exist three pitches earlier.
Then comes the decision. Stay anchored and wait for a hit, or gamble that the defense cannot execute under pressure?
The answer will unfold in less than four seconds. Cleats will tear through the dirt. A catcher will spring from his crouch. The throw will chase the runner toward the bag.
One fearless read could decide the series. The box score may barely notice.
READ MORE: From Injured Ace to Closer: Roki Sasaki Locks Down First Career Save in Playoff Fire
FAQS
1. Why could baserunning decide the Mariners-Dodgers series finale?
Seattle can disrupt Roki Sasaki’s rhythm, force hurried decisions and create an extra base before either lineup produces a major hit.
2. How many stolen bases does Josh Naylor have in 2026?
Naylor enters the finale with 21 stolen bases, despite a sprint speed of roughly 24.5 feet per second.
3. Why has Josh Naylor become an effective baserunner?
He studies pitchers’ timing, earns clean jumps and commits before raw speed becomes the deciding factor.
4. What is Dalton Rushing’s average pop time?
Rushing’s average pop time to second base stands at 1.92 seconds, giving Los Angeles a useful weapon against Seattle’s runners.
5. How did the first two Mariners-Dodgers games end?
Seattle won the opener 7–6. Los Angeles answered with a 4–2 victory in the second game.
