The Open power rankings should feel harsher at Royal Birkdale than they do anywhere else on the rota. This course does not flatter a player into contention. It drags him there. The 154th Open will run from July 16 through July 19, 2026, the 11th time Birkdale has staged golf’s oldest major, and the setting still feels built for interrogation. The 6th hole stretches to about 499 yards as a par 4 during The Open and plays into the prevailing wind.
Then the round eventually walks toward that exposed closing stretch under the famous white clubhouse, where a clean strike can feel like an act of self control. This is where Scottie Scheffler will arrive as the reigning Champion Golfer of the Year after winning the 153rd Open at Royal Portrush. This is where Rory McIlroy will arrive after defending his Masters title in April, this is where Cameron Young, Justin Rose, and Tommy Fleetwood will try to turn form into something bigger.
Royal Birkdale has always punished vanity before it punishes talent. The place has given us Arnold Palmer escaping trouble in 1961, Justin Rose holing out on the 18th as a teenager in 1998, Padraig Harrington hitting that towering 5 wood in 2008, and Jordan Spieth surviving one of the strangest detours in modern major history in 2017. Those moments are why this version of the Open power rankings cannot be built from world ranking alone. Birkdale asks for more than form. It asks who can keep the ball under the wind, who can land an iron on the proper shelf, and who can accept a hard par without trying to buy it back on the next hole.
So let the setup end there. The course is severe. The names are massive. The board matters because Birkdale exposes the smallest cracks in the biggest reputations. Here is the list.
The contenders who feel built for this week
10. Matt Fitzpatrick
Matt Fitzpatrick opens the list because his season has carried the right kind of quiet. He has already collected one win in 2026, added three top 10s, and stayed close enough to the top of the FedExCup race to matter every time the weekend starts. That matters at Birkdale because this championship often rewards players who look comfortable living without fireworks. Fitzpatrick also gave himself a useful piece of Open evidence at Royal Portrush last year, where he tied for fourth at 11 under, his best finish in this major. England usually projects Open hope through charm and memory. Rose still gives it the romance. Fitzpatrick gives it the colder version: fairways hit, mistakes contained, pulse steady.
9. Shane Lowry
There is a specific electricity around Shane Lowry on a links course, and it has never really faded since Portrush in 2019. Fans still point to that win as one of the defining links performances of the modern era because Lowry did not merely survive the weather. He seemed to speak its language. His 2026 season has been sturdy rather than dominant, but that misses the point here. Birkdale is not a place that cares how glossy a résumé looks in April. It cares whether a player can take an awkward lie, a wet wind, and a miserable bounce without losing his shape. Lowry has already answered that question once in the loudest way possible. If the week gets ugly, he may start feeling more dangerous with every hour.
8. Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa remains one of the most fascinating names on this board because his best golf can make a hard course look clean. He reminded everyone of that at Pebble Beach this season, where he ended his drought with a win that leaned on sharp iron control and patient scoring in coastal conditions. His Open profile already carries serious weight too. Morikawa won this championship on debut in 2021, a result that still feels slightly outrageous because the Claret Jug rarely welcomes a newcomer that warmly.
Yet Birkdale is a messier test than the version of links golf he sometimes makes look surgical. Pot bunkers, awkward stances, and missed spots around the greens can turn a neat week into a filthy one. He has the craft to win it again. The only question is whether he can stay calm when this course refuses to stay tidy.
7. Tyrrell Hatton
Tyrrell Hatton belongs here because links golf has always looked like the most honest version of him. He tied for third at the 2026 Masters, which pushed his season into sharper focus, and he also secured a place in his 13th consecutive Open. Hatton’s appeal at Birkdale is not hard to see. He treats every bad bounce like a personal insult, and on this kind of course that fury can either torch a round or keep a player alive. The better way to frame it is this: Hatton rarely drifts out of an Open because he is bored or comfortable. If he loses ground, it usually happens in full public argument with the place. That edge can be exhausting. It can also be useful when the weather turns and the scorecard starts looking rude.
6. Tommy Fleetwood
No player on this list carries a deeper emotional tie to the venue than Tommy Fleetwood. He was born in Southport, and his official biography says he used to sneak onto Royal Birkdale with his father as a child. That detail matters because it keeps this from feeling like a generic home game narrative. Fleetwood knows this ground in a way that most players can only imagine. He also arrives with real standing. The Official World Golf Ranking has him at No. 5, and his Open résumé includes a runner up finish at Portrush in 2019. Birkdale can turn local memory into pressure if a player lets it. Fleetwood’s challenge will be to use it as comfort instead. If he ever lifts the Claret Jug, this course feels like one of the few places where the story would sound less like fantasy and more like delayed truth.
5. Justin Rose
Justin Rose has forced his way back into the top half of this board because his game looks sharp again and the ranking now reflects it. The OWGR lists him at No. 4, a climb powered by his Farmers Insurance Open victory and a strong Masters week that put him back in the center of a major conversation. Rose also owns one of the most vivid Birkdale memories anyone in this field can claim. His hole out on the 18th as a 17 year old amateur in 1998 still lives in Open lore because it felt like a country discovering a future star in real time. That future has now become a long, accomplished career with enough scars to understand what Birkdale does to people. Rose no longer needs this event to announce himself. He needs it because the course and the championship still fit the seriousness of who he is.
4. Xander Schauffele
Xander Schauffele stays in this range because majors keep confirming the same truth about him. He rarely makes the week feel emotional, but he almost always makes it feel manageable. Schauffele won the 2024 Open at Royal Troon with a closing 65, one of those final rounds that seemed to remove panic from the whole property. He has added four top 10s in 2026 and keeps showing up in the last act of tournaments without a lot of wasted motion. That matters here. Birkdale does not reward the most expressive player. It often rewards the one who can remain boring when the conditions are begging for panic. Schauffele’s emotional temperature barely changes, and that has become one of the sturdier assets in championship golf.
3. Cameron Young
This is where the list starts getting loud. Cameron Young has moved from dangerous talent to proven threat in a hurry, and the best evidence arrived at The Players Championship, where he won with a total of 275, finishing 13 under for his second PGA Tour title. Reuters also tracked the shape of his Masters run, where a third round 65 put him in the final pairing and reminded everyone how explosive his ceiling can look in a major.
The OWGR now places him at No. 3, which sounds dramatic until you watch how quickly he can tilt a leaderboard. His Open history already had teeth before this spring. Young closed with 65 at St Andrews in 2022 and finished one shot short. That matters because it proves the stage does not scare him. Now that the résumé finally carries a huge win, the old label of gifted nearly man looks expired.
2. Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy arrives with a larger spotlight than anyone in the field, but Birkdale will not care about the glow from Augusta. What makes him so dangerous here is not simply that he won the Masters in 2025 and 2026. It is that his game still owns the shots this championship asks for most. He can flatten trajectory when the breeze freshens. He can carry long irons into firm targets without looking rushed, he can also turn a difficult par 4 into a two shot puzzle instead of a display of ego. That matters more here than any jacket ceremony ever could. McIlroy won this championship in 2014, tied for seventh at Portrush last year, and remains one of the few players who can make an Open feel partly solved if the driver behaves. The question is familiar and still sharp: when Birkdale asks for restraint instead of force, can he keep choosing the disciplined shot often enough to win another Claret Jug.
1. Scottie Scheffler
The top line still belongs to Scottie Scheffler because the sport keeps shrinking toward his steadiness. He is world No. 1. He won the 153rd Open at Royal Portrush in 267, he opened 2026 with another PGA Tour win at The American Express, which pushed his Tour total to 20. Then he nearly ran down McIlroy at Augusta anyway, finishing one shot back after a relentless chase on the weekend. Scheffler’s appeal at Birkdale is almost boring to describe, which is usually the surest sign of a great player. He wastes very little. He controls distance, accepts the score the hole offers, and keeps moving. On a course where everyone else will spend part of the week arguing with the wind or the bounce, Scheffler looks like the man most likely to stay in conversation only with the next shot. That is why he starts at No. 1 on these Open power rankings.
What this board is really measuring
By July, plenty of talk around this championship will drift toward weather and reputation because those are the easiest stories to tell. Birkdale demands something more exact. It asks whether a player can keep his shape when the round gets awkward. It asks whether he can choose the sensible target after one ugly miss. Most of all, it asks whether he trusts patience enough to let par feel useful. That is why the Open power rankings should not be read like a list of the most famous names in golf. They should be read like a measure of whose temperament survives contact with this course.
That is also why the final decision at the top feels so severe. McIlroy may have the broader emotional pull. Young may have the fastest rising force. Rose may have the sweetest connection between past and present. Yet the man at No. 1 remains there because he keeps making elite golf look repeatable. Royal Birkdale will reduce the week to flight, nerve, and patience. If that happens again, the safest bet is still the player who has looked most comfortable inside those essentials. On this board, and probably in July, that player remains Scottie Scheffler.
Also Read: Open Championship: Dark Horses for the Claret Jug
FAQs
Q1. Who tops these Open power rankings for Royal Birkdale?
A1. Scottie Scheffler does. He starts first because he keeps making elite golf look repeatable.
Q2. Why does Royal Birkdale matter so much in this ranking?
A2. Birkdale rewards patience, flight control, and restraint. It punishes players who chase a mistake with a worse decision.
Q3. Why is Rory McIlroy ranked so high?
A3. He brings the right shots for this place. He can flatten trajectory, trust long irons, and stay dangerous when the wind freshens.
Q4. Why is Cameron Young already in the top three?
A4. The Players win changed the conversation. He now arrives with proof, not just promise.
Q5. Which contender has the strongest local connection to Birkdale?
A5. Tommy Fleetwood. He grew up in Southport and used to sneak onto Royal Birkdale with his father.
